NO @ IND
NBA
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
·Final
119–127
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 33 | 33 | 27 | 26 | 119 |
| IND | 31 | 42 | 29 | 25 | 127 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
IND
39%
61%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson S | 33 | 27 | 6 | 7 |
| Trey Murphy III S | 38 | 22 | 4 | 5 |
| Saddiq Bey S | 32 | 20 | 4 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Fears S | 31 | 16 | 6 | 5 |
| Derik Queen S | 28 | 14 | 12 | 3 |
| Jordan Poole | 17 | 11 | 2 | 1 |
| Bryce McGowens | 16 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 15 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Yves Missi | 20 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Pascal Siakam ·
Layup (2 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes two point shot (Johnny Furphy assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Zion Williamson
NO
14%
2
Pascal Siakam
IND
12%
3
Andrew Nembhard
IND
12%
4
Saddiq Bey
NO
12%
5
Trey Murphy III
NO
10%
6
Derik Queen
NO
9%
7
Jeremiah Fears
NO
8%
8
Johnny Furphy
IND
8%
9
Jay Huff
IND
7%
10
Aaron Nesmith
IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
22%
Layup
30%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pascal Siakam | IND | 25.6 | 7.3 | 4.9 |
| 2 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 25.5 | 6.0 | 3.9 |
| 3 | Zion Williamson | NO | 24.4 | 6.6 | 3.9 |
| 4 | Andrew Nembhard | IND | 20.5 | 3.9 | 9.1 |
| 5 | Saddiq Bey | NO | 18.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 6 | Jordan Poole | NO | 14.5 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
| 7 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 14.3 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| 8 | Aaron Nesmith | IND | 13.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| 9 | Derik Queen | NO | 12.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 |
| 10 | T.J. McConnell | IND | 10.1 | 2.3 | 5.6 |
| 11 | Jay Huff | IND | 9.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 12 | Jarace Walker | IND | 8.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 13 | Bryce McGowens | NO | 7.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 14 | Micah Potter | IND | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 15 | Johnny Furphy | IND | 7.2 | 5.6 | 1.5 |
| 16 | Ben Sheppard | IND | 6.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 |
| 17 | Yves Missi | NO | 6.4 | 6.6 | 1.4 |
| 18 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 6.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 |
| 19 | Quenton Jackson | IND | 5.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| 20 | Micah Peavy | NO | 5.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 21 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 22 | Ethan Thompson | IND | 4.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 23 | Tony Bradley | IND | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 24 | Kevon Looney | NO | 3.0 | 4.7 | 1.0 |
| 25 | Kam Jones | IND | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| 26 | Trey Alexander | NO | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.