NBA games

CHI @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
109–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI23173237109
BKN27303223112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BKN
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 33 19 6 5
Ayo Dosunmu 20 18 1 1
Coby White S 33 17 4 4
Matas Buzelis S 32 15 6 3
Jalen Smith 35 14 13 4
Tre Jones S 30 11 5 5
Patrick Williams 12 7 3 1
Isaac Okoro S 32 6 2 5
Kevin Huerter 10 2 1 0
Dalen Terry 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 26 7 1
Noah Clowney S 28 23 11 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 14 6 3
Danny Wolf 19 13 4 4
Cam Thomas 25 8 1 4
Nolan Traore 28 8 2 7
Nic Claxton S 29 7 14 5
Terance Mann 17 5 2 0
Egor Demin S 19 5 0 2
Drake Powell S 24 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
3 Coby White CHI
12%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
6 Isaac Okoro CHI
9%
7 Tre Jones CHI
8%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
9 Drake Powell BKN
8%
10 Egor Demin BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
27%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.2 7.4 4.3
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.9 9.3 4.8
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.9 5.0 2.8
4 Coby White CHI 16.4 4.0 4.7
5 Cam Thomas BKN 16.0 2.5 2.9
6 Egor Demin BKN 15.8 3.5 4.1
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.5 3.7 5.0
8 Tre Jones CHI 13.3 3.0 6.5
9 Nic Claxton BKN 12.9 7.3 2.7
10 Noah Clowney BKN 12.9 4.0 2.6
11 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.3 4.7 2.6
12 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.2 3.5 1.5
13 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.0 7.6 2.7
14 Jalen Smith CHI 9.8 8.0 1.4
15 Terance Mann BKN 7.8 3.4 3.8
16 Danny Wolf BKN 7.5 4.3 1.7
17 Nolan Traore BKN 7.4 1.9 3.3
18 Drake Powell BKN 6.6 2.3 1.1
19 Patrick Williams CHI 6.2 2.8 1.3
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 5.9 2.3 1.3
21 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.2 1.5 0.5
22 Jevon Carter CHI 3.7 1.0 0.6
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 2.0 0.8
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.