NBA games

CHA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
135–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA30344031135
LAL39163824117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home LAL
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 29 30 6 11
Brandon Miller S 40 26 2 5
Miles Bridges S 33 25 8 4
Kon Knueppel S 33 19 7 4
Sion James 17 9 8 2
Ryan Kalkbrenner 15 9 6 1
Moussa Diabate S 30 8 6 2
Collin Sexton 14 6 0 3
Grant Williams 13 3 3 0
Pat Connaughton 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 39 3 4
LeBron James S 33 29 9 6
Jake LaRavia S 37 18 3 3
Deandre Ayton S 32 12 6 1
Marcus Smart S 32 10 4 3
Jarred Vanderbilt 15 6 5 0
Rui Hachimura 18 3 1 1
Dalton Knecht 2 0 0 0
Gabe Vincent 15 0 1 0
Nick Smith Jr. 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
12%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
11%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
11%
6 Moussa Diabate CHA
10%
7 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
8 Luka Doncic LAL
8%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
39%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.1 5.7 10.1
2 LeBron James LAL 25.4 5.6 6.8
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.2 4.8 6.3
4 Brandon Miller CHA 21.1 4.9 3.7
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.8 4.4 3.8
6 Miles Bridges CHA 16.6 7.0 3.4
7 Collin Sexton CHA 15.3 2.2 4.0
8 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.1 4.2 2.2
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.3 7.9 1.2
10 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.1 10.0 2.1
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.4 3.5 1.1
12 Marcus Smart LAL 8.7 3.7 3.3
13 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.2 5.9 1.0
14 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 6.8 4.0 1.6
15 Sion James CHA 6.5 3.5 2.5
16 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.1 1.5 1.3
17 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 5.9 1.2 1.1
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.6 4.6 0.9
19 Kobe Bufkin LAL 5.1 1.9 1.0
20 Josh Green CHA 5.0 1.6 1.0
21 Tre Mann CHA 4.6 1.5 1.2
22 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.1 1.3 0.6
23 Bronny James LAL 3.9 0.9 0.8
24 Drew Timme LAL 2.6 1.5 0.7
25 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.4 0.8 0.4
26 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.1 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.