NBA games

ATL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
101–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL25313114101
POR33213429117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home POR
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Onyeka Okongwu S 37 26 9 2
CJ McCollum 29 20 3 4
Jalen Johnson S 38 12 11 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 29 11 6 7
Dyson Daniels S 33 10 5 1
Vit Krejci S 21 8 1 1
Mouhamed Gueye 21 6 3 2
Luke Kennard 19 5 0 0
Corey Kispert 13 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 33 24 9 5
Jerami Grant 23 16 2 3
Rayan Rupert 16 13 3 2
Jrue Holiday S 21 12 4 4
Caleb Love 26 12 3 4
Toumani Camara S 38 11 4 1
Donovan Clingan S 28 9 12 1
Duop Reath 13 8 3 0
Robert Williams III 20 6 11 2
Sidy Cissoko S 22 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sidy Cissoko · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Sidy Cissoko makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
10%
2 Jerami Grant POR
9%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
8%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
9 Toumani Camara POR
6%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
67%
Jumper
17%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 28.5 6.9 8.6
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 24.5 8.9 8.2
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.3 4.2 3.9
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.7 4.8 4.0
5 Jerami Grant POR 21.9 4.3 3.6
6 CJ McCollum ATL 20.0 4.2 4.3
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 19.2 8.8 4.5
8 Caleb Love POR 18.8 4.1 3.9
9 Jrue Holiday POR 17.9 4.8 7.6
10 Toumani Camara POR 15.3 4.9 3.1
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.5 7.7 7.9
12 Donovan Clingan POR 13.9 10.9 2.1
13 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.7 4.1 1.3
14 Corey Kispert ATL 9.2 2.4 1.7
15 Vit Krejci ATL 8.9 2.6 1.9
16 Luke Kennard ATL 8.6 2.0 2.2
17 Sidy Cissoko POR 8.0 2.9 2.0
18 Kris Murray POR 7.5 3.1 1.4
19 Robert Williams III POR 6.1 5.9 1.1
20 Rayan Rupert POR 5.5 2.3 1.3
21 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.3 1.4 0.9
22 Asa Newell ATL 4.7 2.5 0.9
23 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.5 1.5 1.2
24 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.2 3.6 1.2
25 Yang Hansen POR 3.8 2.3 1.1
26 Duop Reath POR 2.8 1.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.