NBA games

NY @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
113–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35242826113
GS30323727126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home GS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 37 25 4 1
Miles McBride S 37 25 3 6
Mikal Bridges S 35 21 1 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 17 20 2
Jordan Clarkson 18 11 2 1
Landry Shamet 16 6 0 0
Josh Hart S 37 5 5 10
Pacome Dadiet 1 2 0 0
Ariel Hukporti 10 1 3 0
Mohamed Diawara 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 32 32 8 4
Stephen Curry S 34 27 3 7
Moses Moody S 28 21 1 0
Brandin Podziemski 26 19 5 2
Draymond Green S 27 6 5 3
Quinten Post S 12 5 2 0
Al Horford 21 5 5 5
De'Anthony Melton 23 5 2 2
Gui Santos 5 3 1 0
Will Richard 15 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles McBride · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
16%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
3 OG Anunoby NY
12%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Stephen Curry GS
10%
6 Josh Hart NY
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Moses Moody GS
8%
9 Quinten Post GS
7%
10 Landry Shamet NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
17%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.3 3.7 6.4
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 21.8 6.1 5.6
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.9 9.9 3.4
4 OG Anunoby NY 17.4 6.4 3.1
5 Josh Hart NY 14.9 7.5 5.1
6 Mikal Bridges NY 13.9 4.9 5.0
7 Miles McBride NY 13.4 2.9 2.7
8 De'Anthony Melton GS 12.2 3.7 1.9
9 Draymond Green GS 11.7 5.4 5.6
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.2 3.6 2.5
11 Landry Shamet NY 10.0 2.5 1.6
12 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.5 2.1 1.3
13 Gary Payton II GS 8.0 3.9 1.5
14 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.8 4.6 1.8
15 Quinten Post GS 7.7 2.2 1.3
16 Moses Moody GS 7.4 2.9 1.4
17 Al Horford GS 7.3 5.5 1.7
18 Tyler Kolek NY 6.7 2.5 3.3
19 Will Richard GS 6.4 2.5 1.6
20 Pat Spencer GS 5.7 2.1 3.2
21 Gui Santos GS 5.6 3.1 1.7
22 Buddy Hield GS 5.4 2.1 1.0
23 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.7 3.8 0.7
24 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.0 2.2 0.8
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.9 1.9 0.7
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.5 3.4 0.9
27 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 3.3 1.7 1.5
28 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.4 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.