NBA games

MIL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
101–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27261632101
SA31354013119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home SA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 22 21 5 1
Kyle Kuzma 21 18 3 2
Bobby Portis 20 13 6 3
Andre Jackson Jr. 10 7 0 1
Amir Coffey 10 7 2 0
Cole Anthony 14 7 3 1
AJ Green S 15 6 0 1
Ryan Rollins S 26 6 7 7
Myles Turner S 23 5 3 3
Gary Trent Jr. 14 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 22 22 10 1
Stephon Castle S 26 19 1 10
De'Aaron Fox S 23 18 4 4
Dylan Harper 25 13 4 5
Julian Champagnie S 24 13 11 1
Luke Kornet 20 10 4 1
Keldon Johnson 21 7 8 2
Harrison Barnes S 16 6 0 3
Kelly Olynyk 10 4 0 1
Lindy Waters III 15 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
AJ Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"AJ Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephon Castle SA
13%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
10%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
6 Bobby Portis MIL
9%
7 Victor Wembanyama SA
8%
8 Myles Turner MIL
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 AJ Green MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
35%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.5 8.7 5.1
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.8 9.3 2.6
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.5 5.1 5.4
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 17.4 5.7 7.8
5 Stephon Castle SA 16.8 5.1 6.7
6 Keldon Johnson SA 15.8 5.7 1.3
7 Ryan Rollins MIL 15.7 5.5 4.7
8 Julian Champagnie SA 14.5 7.5 1.8
9 Bobby Portis MIL 13.6 6.9 1.7
10 Myles Turner MIL 11.2 4.8 1.3
11 Kyle Kuzma MIL 10.1 4.1 1.9
12 AJ Green MIL 9.7 2.6 1.8
13 Luke Kornet SA 9.3 7.9 1.7
14 Harrison Barnes SA 7.7 2.5 2.3
15 Dylan Harper SA 7.7 3.2 2.7
16 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.5 1.5 1.2
17 Jericho Sims MIL 4.6 3.5 0.9
18 Gary Harris MIL 4.5 1.8 1.0
19 Cole Anthony MIL 3.8 1.5 1.4
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.5 1.4 1.1
21 Lindy Waters III SA 3.4 1.3 0.8
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.2 0.8
23 Pete Nance MIL 3.2 1.3 0.6
24 Jeremy Sochan SA 3.0 1.9 0.7
25 Amir Coffey MIL 2.9 1.0 0.5
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.8 1.7 0.5
27 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.5 1.3 0.7
28 Carter Bryant SA 2.5 1.3 0.6
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.