NBA games

OKC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
111–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC21342234111
HOU1929271691

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home HOU
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 20 2 4
Chet Holmgren S 29 18 9 1
Ajay Mitchell 23 17 5 3
Luguentz Dort S 21 13 3 1
Cason Wallace 22 8 3 2
Kenrich Williams 14 7 2 0
Jalen Williams S 31 6 5 10
Jaylin Williams 16 6 2 0
Isaiah Joe 8 6 1 0
Alex Caruso 18 5 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 19 7 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 17 10 1
Alperen Sengun S 33 14 13 5
Amen Thompson S 40 13 9 3
Reed Sheppard 19 7 2 3
Steven Adams 25 6 11 0
Josh Okogie S 22 5 5 1
JD Davison 21 5 1 1
Jeff Green 4 3 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
5 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Josh Okogie HOU
6%
9 Aaron Holiday HOU
6%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
17%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.5 4.0 6.2
2 Kevin Durant HOU 27.5 6.4 6.8
3 Amen Thompson HOU 23.7 8.9 5.3
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.9 8.9 6.2
5 Jalen Williams OKC 19.3 4.8 5.9
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.1 9.7 1.8
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 14.6 3.4 3.6
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.4 7.1 1.8
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.8 2.5 2.9
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.0 3.7 1.7
11 Luguentz Dort OKC 7.9 3.5 1.1
12 Steven Adams HOU 7.1 7.7 1.6
13 Alex Caruso OKC 6.6 2.4 1.4
14 Cason Wallace OKC 6.4 3.2 1.6
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.3 5.2 1.9
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.2 1.9 0.8
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.7 2.6 1.0
18 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.6 1.2 0.8
19 Josh Okogie HOU 4.1 2.1 0.8
20 Clint Capela HOU 4.0 4.3 0.8
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.9 2.0 1.0
22 JD Davison HOU 2.8 1.6 1.1
23 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.6 1.0 1.0
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 1.8 0.7 0.3
25 Jeff Green HOU 1.7 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.