NBA games

BOS @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
119–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS25292936119
MIA36282921114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons 34 39 4 4
Jaylen Brown S 30 27 7 0
Sam Hauser S 29 17 3 3
Luka Garza 28 11 4 1
Neemias Queta S 20 9 9 0
Derrick White S 36 8 6 5
Jordan Walsh 20 4 8 1
Payton Pritchard S 24 2 3 8
Hugo Gonzalez 14 2 4 0
Baylor Scheierman 5 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 32 26 3 2
Bam Adebayo S 33 22 4 5
Tyler Herro S 31 22 2 3
Andrew Wiggins S 35 16 8 4
Kasparas Jakucionis 27 12 5 8
Pelle Larsson S 30 7 3 2
Simone Fontecchio 17 3 4 0
Nikola Jovic 15 3 5 0
Kel'el Ware 9 3 5 0
Dru Smith 12 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Norman Powell MIA
11%
3 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
4 Derrick White BOS
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
8 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Baylor Scheierman BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
18%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 30.8 6.8 6.1
2 Norman Powell MIA 23.1 4.1 4.1
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.6 5.1 3.4
4 Derrick White BOS 20.2 5.3 5.7
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.3 4.0 4.9
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.3 4.8 5.8
7 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.6 5.2 3.0
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 14.6 3.2 3.2
9 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.4 9.4 3.3
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.2 4.2 3.6
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.5 7.4 1.2
12 Neemias Queta BOS 9.9 9.5 1.2
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.5 2.5 6.4
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 9.3 3.1 2.5
15 Luka Garza BOS 8.9 4.7 1.1
16 Sam Hauser BOS 8.7 3.7 1.1
17 Dru Smith MIA 6.0 2.2 1.8
18 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.4 3.3 0.9
19 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.3 3.3 1.0
20 Chris Boucher BOS 4.0 3.1 0.6
21 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.7 1.5 0.9
22 Simone Fontecchio MIA 3.6 1.5 0.6
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.5 1.8 0.7
24 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 3.4 1.2 0.8
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.3 1.5 0.6
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.2 0.4
27 Amari Williams BOS 2.5 1.9 0.5
28 Max Shulga BOS 2.5 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.