NBA games

PHX @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
105–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX32312715105
DET23333319108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DET
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grayson Allen S 31 33 5 0
Collin Gillespie S 36 18 2 6
Dillon Brooks S 28 16 1 1
Royce O'Neale S 29 11 7 7
Oso Ighodaro 26 10 3 0
Jordan Goodwin 32 7 12 3
Mark Williams S 22 5 6 2
Ryan Dunn 19 5 3 1
Isaiah Livers 14 0 2 1
Rasheer Fleming 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 27 19 1 0
Tobias Harris S 29 16 7 2
Jalen Duren S 28 16 18 2
Jaden Ivey 17 15 2 1
Ronald Holland II 21 11 9 1
Cade Cunningham S 38 10 4 11
Ausar Thompson S 19 5 6 2
Javonte Green 16 5 0 0
Daniss Jenkins 6 5 0 3
Isaiah Stewart 22 4 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
12%
2 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
3 Mark Williams PHX
10%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
8%
7 Jaden Ivey DET
7%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
9 Javonte Green DET
7%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
28%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.7 6.6 9.9
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.3 4.1 2.4
3 Jalen Duren DET 14.6 8.5 1.6
4 Grayson Allen PHX 12.9 3.0 3.1
5 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.7 4.5 4.0
6 Royce O'Neale PHX 12.2 4.7 2.8
7 Mark Williams PHX 11.1 8.9 1.2
8 Ausar Thompson DET 10.8 6.3 2.2
9 Tobias Harris DET 10.3 3.3 2.1
10 Duncan Robinson DET 10.3 2.7 1.6
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 10.2 5.2 1.0
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.1 5.7 2.5
13 Javonte Green DET 8.9 3.2 1.2
14 Ronald Holland II DET 8.5 6.0 1.1
15 Jaden Ivey DET 7.9 2.3 1.5
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.8 4.9 1.9
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.2 4.1 1.5
18 Caris LeVert DET 6.1 2.2 2.4
19 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.9 1.7 3.1
20 Marcus Sasser DET 3.8 1.0 1.4
21 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.5 1.4 0.9
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.3 1.7 0.5
23 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.7 2.2 0.9
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.3 1.4 0.5
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.9 1.5 0.5
26 Nick Richards PHX 1.8 2.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.