NBA games

MEM @ ORL

NBA Uber Arena ·Final
111–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM39281232111
ORL23352634118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home ORL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 30 3 1
Santi Aldama 30 18 5 1
Cedric Coward S 27 17 3 2
GG Jackson 22 15 1 2
Vince Williams Jr. 21 10 1 4
Cam Spencer S 27 7 7 11
Jock Landale S 30 6 5 1
John Konchar 18 6 8 3
Jaylen Wells S 18 2 2 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 14 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 26 13 4
Anthony Black S 36 21 6 7
Franz Wagner S 27 18 9 2
Desmond Bane S 34 13 4 5
Noah Penda 18 9 5 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 9 6 3
Tristan da Silva 22 8 4 2
Moritz Wagner 14 7 4 0
Goga Bitadze 12 5 3 1
Tyus Jones 12 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes driving layup (Anthony Black assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
3 Cedric Coward MEM
9%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
5 Anthony Black ORL
9%
6 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Jock Landale MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
26%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.0 9.3 6.3
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.8 6.1 3.9
3 Anthony Black ORL 22.9 4.4 6.3
4 Desmond Bane ORL 22.0 5.2 5.1
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.7 7.0 2.1
6 Santi Aldama MEM 17.3 7.0 3.8
7 Cedric Coward MEM 17.3 7.6 3.5
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 13.6 7.9 2.2
9 Cam Spencer MEM 12.4 3.3 7.7
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.0 3.1 2.3
11 Jock Landale MEM 11.6 7.4 1.9
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.4 2.7 1.4
13 GG Jackson MEM 9.1 3.8 1.4
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 9.1 2.7 1.8
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 7.5 3.5 3.6
16 Jase Richardson ORL 7.3 1.9 1.5
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 6.1 1.0
18 Noah Penda ORL 5.9 4.1 1.3
19 Tyus Jones ORL 5.1 1.8 2.4
20 John Konchar MEM 4.1 2.7 1.2
21 Jamal Cain ORL 3.8 1.2 0.7
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.5 2.4 0.8
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.1 1.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.