NBA games

WSH @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
105–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH22293816105
LAC37332623119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home LAC
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George S 32 23 5 4
Khris Middleton S 27 17 3 5
Marvin Bagley III 27 15 11 2
Will Riley 27 12 2 1
Tre Johnson S 27 10 2 3
Tristan Vukcevic 8 10 1 1
Justin Champagnie 27 7 8 1
Alex Sarr S 13 4 1 1
Bub Carrington 33 4 5 7
Bilal Coulibaly S 10 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 30 33 3 4
James Harden S 37 22 5 8
Yanic Konan Niederhauser 23 16 5 2
Brook Lopez S 21 11 4 1
Jordan Miller 34 11 10 5
Kobe Sanders S 26 11 1 0
Nicolas Batum 26 9 8 0
Kris Dunn S 23 4 2 3
Cam Christie 21 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Khris Middleton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Khris Middleton makes 19-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
15%
2 Tre Johnson WSH
12%
3 James Harden LAC
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
12%
6 John Collins LAC
10%
7 Khris Middleton WSH
10%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
40%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 30.9 6.6 4.5
2 James Harden LAC 26.5 4.1 7.6
3 Alex Sarr WSH 16.0 6.8 2.7
4 Kyshawn George WSH 14.9 5.1 5.4
5 Tre Johnson WSH 14.8 3.0 3.0
6 John Collins LAC 14.5 5.6 1.6
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.9 5.9 2.4
8 Bub Carrington WSH 12.5 3.8 4.8
9 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.8 6.6 1.4
10 Kris Dunn LAC 8.6 2.8 3.4
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.3 5.0 1.2
12 Khris Middleton WSH 7.5 3.2 2.4
13 Brook Lopez LAC 7.1 3.9 1.5
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.9 3.2 2.1
15 Jordan Miller LAC 6.8 2.5 1.2
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.7 2.5 1.4
17 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.4 3.0 0.8
18 Will Riley WSH 5.1 2.3 1.4
19 Malaki Branham WSH 4.2 1.8 1.0
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.0 1.1 0.6
21 AJ Johnson WSH 3.0 1.4 0.9
22 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 2.9 2.7 0.4
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.2 1.1 0.4
24 Cam Christie LAC 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.