NBA games

DEN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
118–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29342530118
DAL23233231109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home DAL
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 38 33 2 5
Aaron Gordon S 30 22 6 3
Peyton Watson S 31 18 5 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 36 12 3 4
Spencer Jones S 32 10 5 2
Jalen Pickett S 28 9 6 3
Bruce Brown 24 7 5 1
Zeke Nnaji 17 4 5 1
DaRon Holmes II 5 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 38 24 5 3
Brandon Williams 25 20 7 1
Caleb Martin 23 15 4 3
P.J. Washington S 31 12 6 2
Klay Thompson 23 8 1 1
Jaden Hardy S 28 8 4 1
Daniel Gafford S 18 6 10 0
Cooper Flagg S 15 6 1 1
Ryan Nembhard 15 5 3 4
Dwight Powell 18 5 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Daniel Gafford · Layup (2 pts) · 10:36 Q1
"Daniel Gafford makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Naji Marshall DAL
11%
2 Peyton Watson DEN
10%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
8%
7 Dwight Powell DAL
8%
8 P.J. Washington DAL
8%
9 Jaden Hardy DAL
7%
10 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
19%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 27.4 5.5 9.4
2 Peyton Watson DEN 24.0 6.3 3.3
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.4 6.7 6.6
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.7 6.6 2.3
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 17.1 3.4 1.8
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.8 4.2 3.5
7 Brandon Williams DAL 14.0 4.0 3.1
8 P.J. Washington DAL 12.7 6.6 1.4
9 Klay Thompson DAL 11.5 3.2 1.7
10 Jalen Pickett DEN 10.3 3.4 3.1
11 Spencer Jones DEN 9.5 4.5 1.4
12 Zeke Nnaji DEN 8.1 4.1 1.1
13 Ryan Nembhard DAL 8.0 2.2 4.7
14 Bruce Brown DEN 7.8 3.9 2.4
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 7.1 1.7 1.2
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 7.1 7.0 0.7
17 D'Angelo Russell DAL 5.4 1.3 2.0
18 Miles Kelly DAL 4.7 1.6 1.3
19 Dwight Powell DAL 4.6 4.4 1.2
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.4 1.9 0.9
21 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.1 1.8 1.1
22 Caleb Martin DAL 3.7 2.1 1.3
23 Julian Strawther DEN 3.6 1.2 1.0
24 Curtis Jones DEN 2.4 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.