NBA games

BKN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
113116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN31243226113
NO27273329116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home NO
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 20 7 1
Egor Demin S 29 17 0 5
Cam Thomas 24 16 1 5
Drake Powell S 24 16 5 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 15 9 0
Nic Claxton S 29 10 6 0
Noah Clowney S 31 6 7 6
Danny Wolf 16 5 5 1
Nolan Traore 19 5 1 1
Terance Mann 17 3 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 38 34 9 5
Zion Williamson S 30 25 6 2
Yves Missi 34 12 12 4
Saddiq Bey S 26 12 4 1
Karlo Matkovic 18 8 3 1
Jordan Poole 18 7 2 2
Jeremiah Fears S 30 7 7 4
Bryce McGowens 15 5 2 1
Derik Queen S 16 4 6 4
Jordan Hawkins 15 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Saddiq Bey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes 10-foot fade away jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
16%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
5 Derik Queen NO
8%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
7 Jeremiah Fears NO
8%
8 Bryce McGowens NO
6%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
6%
10 Terance Mann BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
52%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 25.8 7.7 4.5
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.1 5.6 4.0
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.3 6.4 3.6
4 Saddiq Bey NO 18.0 5.4 2.4
5 Cam Thomas BKN 16.9 2.6 2.6
6 Egor Demin BKN 15.6 3.6 3.9
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.8 4.5 3.8
8 Nic Claxton BKN 13.9 7.8 3.5
9 Noah Clowney BKN 13.7 3.8 2.3
10 Jordan Poole NO 13.0 2.1 3.3
11 Derik Queen NO 12.0 9.6 5.0
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 10.0 8.0 3.4
13 Terance Mann BKN 8.1 3.6 3.9
14 Nolan Traore BKN 7.4 2.0 3.6
15 Bryce McGowens NO 7.2 2.3 1.4
16 Danny Wolf BKN 7.2 4.3 1.8
17 Drake Powell BKN 6.5 2.1 1.3
18 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.3 2.5 1.4
19 Yves Missi NO 5.9 6.1 1.1
20 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.8 3.6 0.7
21 Micah Peavy NO 5.7 2.0 1.4
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.7 1.6 0.7
23 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.5 2.2 0.9
24 Kevon Looney NO 2.7 4.5 1.0
25 Trey Alexander NO 2.4 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.