NBA games

CLE @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
133–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE33273340133
PHI18292832107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home PHI
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 33 35 7 9
Darius Garland S 23 20 3 7
De'Andre Hunter 22 17 4 4
Evan Mobley S 34 17 13 6
Jaylon Tyson S 25 12 5 3
Jarrett Allen S 26 10 5 2
Lonzo Ball 14 9 4 4
Thomas Bryant 5 4 1 0
Larry Nance Jr. 5 3 1 0
Sam Merrill 10 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 25 20 4 3
Paul George S 30 17 4 4
Tyrese Maxey S 31 14 2 4
VJ Edgecombe S 27 9 3 2
Quentin Grimes 22 8 5 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. 26 7 5 2
Andre Drummond 12 7 9 0
Justin Edwards 7 6 0 0
Adem Bona 11 6 2 0
Jared McCain 10 6 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Paul George PHI
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
8 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
9 VJ Edgecombe PHI
7%
10 Andre Drummond PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
9%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 28.8 4.6 6.6
2 Joel Embiid PHI 28.1 8.9 4.4
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.8 5.0 6.1
4 Darius Garland CLE 21.1 2.5 6.8
5 Paul George PHI 17.9 5.7 4.2
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 17.4 4.9 5.6
7 Evan Mobley CLE 17.0 7.2 3.9
8 Sam Merrill CLE 14.0 3.1 2.3
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.8 8.8 2.7
10 Quentin Grimes PHI 12.6 3.9 2.5
11 Jaylon Tyson CLE 12.1 4.9 2.0
12 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 11.6 4.4 1.6
13 De'Andre Hunter CLE 10.4 4.2 2.2
14 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.2 4.6 1.3
15 Andre Drummond PHI 6.4 7.0 1.0
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.3 5.0 3.9
17 Trendon Watford PHI 6.2 2.7 2.2
18 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.9 3.2 0.7
19 Adem Bona PHI 5.6 4.3 0.9
20 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.4 2.5 0.8
21 Jared McCain PHI 5.2 2.1 1.1
22 Lonzo Ball CLE 4.8 2.5 2.7
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.3 2.3 1.2
24 Eric Gordon PHI 3.8 0.5 0.5
25 Jabari Walker PHI 3.8 2.7 0.7
26 Justin Edwards PHI 3.7 1.8 1.0
27 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.3 1.2 0.8
28 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.0 1.2 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.