NBA games

TOR @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
115101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR39282721115
IND18303023101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home IND
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 36 30 7 4
Scottie Barnes S 38 26 7 13
Gradey Dick 30 21 11 3
Ochai Agbaji 24 10 1 0
Collin Murray-Boyles S 33 10 10 3
Jamal Shead S 34 7 3 6
A.J. Lawson 17 5 6 0
Jamison Battle S 20 5 3 1
Alijah Martin 7 1 1 0
Jonathan Mogbo 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 35 26 10 4
Andrew Nembhard S 32 14 2 6
Quenton Jackson 19 14 5 2
Jarace Walker 18 11 1 2
Johnny Furphy S 26 10 10 2
T.J. McConnell 21 8 2 6
Jay Huff S 16 7 4 0
Aaron Nesmith S 31 6 5 2
Ben Sheppard 13 3 1 2
Tony Bradley 20 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Collin Murray-Boyles · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Collin Murray-Boyles makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
15%
2 Andrew Nembhard IND
13%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
9%
6 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
8 Jamal Shead TOR
8%
9 Jay Huff IND
7%
10 Johnny Furphy IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
28%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 23.9 7.1 4.2
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 9.5 6.2
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.7 6.9 3.5
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.2 3.8 8.3
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.1 4.1 5.5
6 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.8 5.3 2.7
7 T.J. McConnell IND 10.7 2.4 5.2
8 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.6 8.7 2.6
9 Jamal Shead TOR 10.5 2.1 5.4
10 Jay Huff IND 9.4 3.1 1.5
11 Jarace Walker IND 8.0 3.1 1.7
12 Micah Potter IND 7.8 3.5 1.4
13 Ben Sheppard IND 7.1 2.7 1.4
14 Johnny Furphy IND 6.5 4.6 1.2
15 Gradey Dick TOR 5.8 2.4 1.0
16 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.2 3.1 0.9
17 Quenton Jackson IND 5.1 1.5 1.3
18 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.9 2.0 0.6
19 Alijah Martin TOR 4.3 2.5 0.9
20 Jamison Battle TOR 3.9 1.9 0.7
21 Ethan Thompson IND 3.8 1.9 1.2
22 Tony Bradley IND 2.9 2.3 0.5
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.7 1.8 0.8
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.3 0.6
25 Kam Jones IND 2.1 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.