NBA games

POR @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
97–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2417302697
GS38292824119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home GS
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 19 2 2
Caleb Love S 34 17 3 7
Rayan Rupert 27 13 1 2
Jrue Holiday 21 12 8 3
Robert Williams III 16 11 8 0
Donovan Clingan S 22 7 9 1
Toumani Camara S 29 6 4 2
Javonte Cooke 13 3 3 2
Yang Hansen 13 3 2 1
Sidy Cissoko S 26 3 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Anthony Melton 18 23 2 1
Jimmy Butler III S 26 16 6 5
Brandin Podziemski 22 15 4 1
Moses Moody S 23 14 2 3
Draymond Green S 22 10 7 0
Will Richard 19 8 0 0
Gary Payton II 13 8 1 1
Stephen Curry S 25 7 4 11
Al Horford 20 6 2 4
Gui Santos 21 6 4 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Draymond Green makes two point shot (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
14%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
4 Jerami Grant POR
10%
5 Stephen Curry GS
9%
6 Quinten Post GS
7%
7 Draymond Green GS
7%
8 Moses Moody GS
7%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
10 Kris Murray POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
40%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 28.7 6.7 8.7
2 Stephen Curry GS 27.4 3.7 6.4
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.3 4.8 3.9
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.0 5.9 5.6
5 Jerami Grant POR 21.8 4.3 3.5
6 Jrue Holiday POR 18.2 4.7 8.0
7 Caleb Love POR 16.4 3.6 3.2
8 Toumani Camara POR 15.7 4.7 2.7
9 Donovan Clingan POR 13.3 10.4 2.4
10 Draymond Green GS 11.4 5.3 5.6
11 De'Anthony Melton GS 10.8 3.6 2.0
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.2 3.8 2.7
13 Quinten Post GS 8.1 2.5 1.3
14 Moses Moody GS 7.8 2.9 1.5
15 Kris Murray POR 7.8 3.4 1.4
16 Gary Payton II GS 7.7 3.9 1.7
17 Al Horford GS 7.6 5.8 1.6
18 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.5 4.6 1.8
19 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.2 2.5 1.9
20 Will Richard GS 6.2 2.5 1.6
21 Robert Williams III POR 5.9 5.6 1.1
22 Pat Spencer GS 5.8 1.9 3.6
23 Buddy Hield GS 5.6 2.4 1.1
24 Gui Santos GS 5.3 3.0 1.2
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 4.2 0.7
26 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.1 1.2 0.8
27 Rayan Rupert POR 4.5 1.9 1.2
28 Javonte Cooke POR 3.1 1.2 0.8
29 Yang Hansen POR 2.8 1.8 0.9
30 Duop Reath POR 2.3 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.