NBA games

ATL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
116–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL30302630116
LAL37442139141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home LAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 26 4 3
CJ McCollum 27 25 1 3
Corey Kispert 26 19 0 1
Jalen Johnson S 30 13 3 6
Vit Krejci S 21 11 2 4
Dyson Daniels S 33 8 8 5
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 7 8 4
Mouhamed Gueye 22 5 4 1
Keaton Wallace 4 2 1 1
Asa Newell 10 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 33 31 9 10
Luka Doncic S 33 27 5 12
Jake LaRavia S 36 17 4 3
Deandre Ayton S 31 17 18 1
Marcus Smart S 29 16 5 4
Gabe Vincent 14 10 1 1
Rui Hachimura 18 7 2 0
Nick Smith Jr. 4 6 0 2
Kobe Bufkin 4 3 1 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 16 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 6-foot two point shot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
12%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
5 LeBron James LAL
9%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
8%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
19%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 32.1 6.5 8.9
2 LeBron James LAL 26.7 5.3 6.5
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.9 10.2 8.4
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 22.0 4.2 3.9
5 CJ McCollum ATL 19.7 4.1 4.4
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 19.4 8.7 4.4
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.6 7.6 7.7
8 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.5 4.6 2.1
9 Deandre Ayton LAL 11.3 8.0 1.3
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.9 4.1 1.3
11 Marcus Smart LAL 9.3 4.0 3.6
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.1 3.2 0.9
13 Vit Krejci ATL 9.0 2.7 1.6
14 Luke Kennard ATL 8.9 2.2 2.4
15 Corey Kispert ATL 8.4 2.4 1.5
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.7 4.8 1.7
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.8 1.9 1.5
18 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 5.9 1.6 1.0
19 Asa Newell ATL 5.4 2.8 0.8
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.5 2.0 0.7
21 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.5 1.3 1.1
22 Bronny James LAL 4.1 1.2 0.8
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.7 3.4 1.0
24 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.8 2.1 0.8
25 Drew Timme LAL 1.9 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.