NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
98–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2626242298
OKC32234024119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 36 20 7 8
Victor Wembanyama S 28 17 7 1
De'Aaron Fox S 34 14 5 5
Julian Champagnie S 34 13 6 1
Dylan Harper 26 12 3 3
Keldon Johnson 20 9 3 0
Luke Kornet 20 8 8 1
Lindy Waters III 13 3 1 1
Harrison Barnes S 24 2 0 1
Carter Bryant 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 34 34 5 5
Jalen Williams S 30 20 0 3
Alex Caruso 20 13 2 4
Jaylin Williams 23 11 10 5
Ajay Mitchell 30 11 6 4
Isaiah Joe 14 8 2 0
Chet Holmgren S 25 8 10 0
Cason Wallace S 23 6 1 1
Aaron Wiggins S 26 5 5 4
Kenrich Williams 14 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
2 Stephon Castle SA
14%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
4 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
5 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Kelly Olynyk SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
34%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.4 4.1 6.7
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 22.4 10.0 2.8
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.2 5.1 5.6
4 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 5.4 6.3
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.4 9.8 2.2
6 Stephon Castle SA 16.7 4.9 6.4
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 15.4 3.9 3.5
8 Keldon Johnson SA 15.1 6.2 1.3
9 Julian Champagnie SA 12.7 7.3 1.8
10 Luke Kornet SA 9.2 7.8 1.7
11 Harrison Barnes SA 8.8 2.9 2.2
12 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.8 3.4 1.6
13 Dylan Harper SA 7.6 3.3 2.5
14 Alex Caruso OKC 6.7 3.4 1.3
15 Cason Wallace OKC 6.6 3.4 1.6
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.0 4.5 2.0
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.8 1.2
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.1 1.8 1.1
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.0 1.3 0.9
20 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.3 1.7 0.9
21 Lindy Waters III SA 3.3 1.2 0.7
22 Jeremy Sochan SA 2.9 2.2 0.6
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.2 0.9 0.6
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.1 0.9 0.4
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.7 0.9 0.3
26 Carter Bryant SA 1.7 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.