NBA games

DEN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
122116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN32282933122
NO31342724116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home NO
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 35 2 9
Peyton Watson S 39 31 7 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. 33 18 4 2
Jalen Pickett S 29 16 0 3
Aaron Gordon S 30 16 7 1
Bruce Brown 24 4 4 2
Spencer Jones S 23 2 5 0
Hunter Tyson 3 0 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 22 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 34 31 5 2
Saddiq Bey S 32 17 4 2
Jordan Poole 20 16 1 2
Zion Williamson S 31 12 7 4
Derik Queen S 29 10 13 5
Jeremiah Fears S 26 10 3 3
Yves Missi 19 8 7 0
Jordan Hawkins 22 6 5 2
Karlo Matkovic 15 4 5 1
Micah Peavy 12 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 2-foot two point shot (Jalen Pickett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
10%
2 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
5 Peyton Watson DEN
9%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Derik Queen NO
9%
8 Jeremiah Fears NO
8%
9 Spencer Jones DEN
7%
10 Hunter Tyson DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
7%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 26.3 5.4 9.3
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.0 6.6 3.9
3 Trey Murphy III NO 23.1 5.4 4.4
4 Peyton Watson DEN 22.2 5.9 3.0
5 Saddiq Bey NO 17.7 5.1 2.5
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.7 6.2 2.3
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 16.7 3.3 1.7
8 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.1 4.4 3.9
9 Jordan Poole NO 14.0 2.4 4.1
10 Derik Queen NO 14.0 9.3 5.6
11 Spencer Jones DEN 9.9 4.4 1.6
12 Jalen Pickett DEN 8.8 3.2 2.7
13 Bruce Brown DEN 8.4 3.9 2.7
14 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.9 3.8 1.0
15 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.8 3.9 0.9
16 Yves Missi NO 5.8 5.8 1.2
17 Micah Peavy NO 5.1 2.0 1.5
18 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.5 2.0 1.3
19 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.4 1.7 1.1
20 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.0 2.0 0.9
21 Julian Strawther DEN 4.0 1.4 1.1
22 Kevon Looney NO 3.0 4.8 1.1
23 Trey Alexander NO 2.6 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.