NBA games

MIN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
139–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN38383033139
MIL20253328106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MIL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 30 29 8 6
Bones Hyland 21 23 2 5
Naz Reid S 28 19 3 2
Jaden McDaniels S 30 17 6 5
Joan Beringer 30 13 5 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 11 4 7
Mike Conley S 21 9 3 5
Leonard Miller 8 7 2 0
Rob Dillingham 8 5 2 0
Jaylen Clark 18 4 6 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 31 25 8 5
Bobby Portis S 27 14 7 1
Kevin Porter Jr. S 29 13 4 8
Ryan Rollins S 31 11 7 3
Amir Coffey 9 10 1 0
AJ Green S 27 9 0 2
Gary Trent Jr. 14 6 0 1
Pete Nance 9 5 0 1
Cole Anthony 9 4 2 3
Gary Harris 13 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
15%
3 Julius Randle MIN
13%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
13%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
13%
6 AJ Green MIL
10%
7 Ryan Rollins MIL
10%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
9 Naz Reid MIN
0%
10 Mike Conley MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
8%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 27.3 8.1 5.1
2 Julius Randle MIN 22.1 6.9 6.3
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 18.4 5.6 7.8
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 17.6 5.4 5.1
5 Naz Reid MIN 17.2 5.9 2.7
6 Bobby Portis MIL 14.2 7.0 1.8
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.0 4.3 2.8
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 12.4 4.8 2.3
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.8 4.6 4.8
10 AJ Green MIL 10.0 2.7 2.1
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.5 10.6 1.4
12 Bones Hyland MIN 6.5 1.8 2.8
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 5.6 1.6 1.5
14 Mike Conley MIN 5.0 1.9 1.9
15 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.6 1.9 0.7
16 Jericho Sims MIL 4.4 2.9 0.8
17 Gary Harris MIL 4.4 1.8 1.0
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.3 1.4 1.4
19 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.1 1.1 0.6
20 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 1.5 0.6
21 Cole Anthony MIL 2.6 1.0 1.1
22 Joan Beringer MIN 2.6 1.8 0.4
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.3 0.7 0.8
24 Pete Nance MIL 2.1 0.8 0.4
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.0 0.8 1.2
26 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.9 0.8 0.3
27 Amir Coffey MIL 1.5 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.