NBA games

CHI @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
113–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24362825113
HOU29283329119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home HOU
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tre Jones S 27 34 2 7
Matas Buzelis S 37 19 6 2
Nikola Vucevic S 37 14 7 5
Jalen Smith S 36 14 9 1
Kevin Huerter 29 11 4 2
Isaac Okoro S 25 9 4 1
Ayo Dosunmu 23 7 4 3
Dalen Terry 9 5 3 1
Patrick Williams 18 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 28 10 4
Amen Thompson S 42 23 5 2
Alperen Sengun S 36 23 7 11
Jabari Smith Jr. S 34 18 7 0
JD Davison 25 9 7 4
Reed Sheppard 22 8 1 1
Steven Adams 18 4 7 1
Josh Okogie S 13 4 3 0
Clint Capela 5 2 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes running layup (Matas Buzelis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
16%
2 Kevin Durant HOU
15%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
11%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
7 Tre Jones CHI
9%
8 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
9 Aaron Holiday HOU
8%
10 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
28%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 27.9 5.7 6.1
2 Amen Thompson HOU 23.7 8.4 5.4
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.1 8.8 5.7
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 18.8 9.2 4.0
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.4 5.3 2.1
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.9 3.4 4.3
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.9 6.1 1.8
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.8 2.5 3.0
9 Tre Jones CHI 10.6 3.0 5.1
10 Kevin Huerter CHI 10.5 4.6 2.4
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 8.5 3.0 1.2
12 Jalen Smith CHI 7.6 6.8 1.2
13 Steven Adams HOU 7.3 7.2 1.8
14 Patrick Williams CHI 4.8 2.3 0.9
15 Josh Okogie HOU 4.0 2.2 1.1
16 Jevon Carter CHI 3.8 1.1 0.7
17 Julian Phillips CHI 3.6 1.4 0.6
18 Clint Capela HOU 3.5 4.0 0.8
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.3 1.7 1.2
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.7 1.5 0.7
21 Dalen Terry CHI 2.6 1.2 0.7
22 Jeff Green HOU 1.8 0.9 0.6
23 JD Davison HOU 1.3 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.