NBA games

PHX @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
121–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28263829121
MIA36352135127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MIA
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 36 25 4 0
Grayson Allen 27 25 4 1
Devin Booker S 40 24 9 9
Mark Williams S 31 18 14 1
Collin Gillespie S 24 13 5 1
Royce O'Neale S 32 8 4 4
Oso Ighodaro 16 3 3 3
Ryan Dunn 16 3 1 2
Jordan Goodwin 17 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 32 29 9 4
Norman Powell S 32 27 5 3
Tyler Herro S 39 23 2 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 31 16 4 8
Kel'el Ware 16 10 5 1
Davion Mitchell S 19 9 3 6
Andrew Wiggins S 29 8 6 1
Dru Smith 9 2 1 0
Pelle Larsson 27 2 3 2
Nikola Jovic 6 1 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
12%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
5 Mark Williams PHX
10%
6 Norman Powell MIA
9%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
37%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.7 3.9 6.2
2 Norman Powell MIA 22.1 3.8 3.7
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.0 5.6 3.1
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.2 4.2 4.2
5 Dillon Brooks PHX 18.9 4.0 2.5
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.2 5.1 2.8
7 Bam Adebayo MIA 12.9 10.0 3.0
8 Collin Gillespie PHX 12.9 4.3 4.9
9 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.8 4.3 4.0
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.5 4.7 2.7
11 Grayson Allen PHX 10.8 2.8 3.1
12 Jordan Goodwin PHX 10.5 5.8 2.8
13 Mark Williams PHX 10.4 9.1 1.3
14 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.1 8.2 1.0
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.9 2.9 2.3
16 Davion Mitchell MIA 8.6 2.6 5.7
17 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.7 4.6 1.7
18 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.5 5.3 1.8
19 Dru Smith MIA 6.2 2.4 1.7
20 Simone Fontecchio MIA 4.0 1.9 0.7
21 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 3.9 1.6 0.9
22 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.8 2.0 0.5
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.1 1.6 0.5
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.7 1.7 0.5
25 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.3 1.8 0.5
26 Nick Richards PHX 2.0 2.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.