NBA games

CHA @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
109–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA26174125109
LAC24214131117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home LAC
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 32 25 9 5
Kon Knueppel S 35 18 5 4
Brandon Miller S 33 13 6 5
Moussa Diabate S 35 13 15 4
Miles Bridges S 34 11 6 1
Tre Mann 13 9 1 1
Sion James 19 8 3 3
Grant Williams 13 7 2 0
Josh Green 13 3 2 1
Ryan Kalkbrenner 13 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 31 35 5 3
James Harden S 38 32 4 10
Jordan Miller 27 14 1 2
Brook Lopez 20 9 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 27 9 11 2
Kobe Sanders 23 8 3 1
Nicolas Batum 22 7 2 2
John Collins S 30 3 5 1
Kris Dunn S 21 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moussa Diabate · Layup (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Moussa Diabate makes driving layup (Kon Knueppel assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
15%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
14%
3 James Harden LAC
10%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
5 Ivica Zubac LAC
9%
6 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
7 John Collins LAC
9%
8 Moussa Diabate CHA
8%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
30%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 30.4 6.4 4.7
2 James Harden LAC 24.5 3.8 7.6
3 Brandon Miller CHA 21.3 4.7 3.3
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.1 4.2 6.4
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 18.2 4.0 3.8
6 Miles Bridges CHA 16.8 7.0 3.9
7 John Collins LAC 15.0 6.1 1.6
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.4 8.5 2.1
9 Kris Dunn LAC 9.2 2.8 3.2
10 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 8.9 6.4 1.1
11 Moussa Diabate CHA 8.4 9.3 1.7
12 Sion James CHA 7.2 3.6 2.6
13 Brook Lopez LAC 6.8 3.8 1.6
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.5 2.8 1.9
15 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.2 2.1 1.2
16 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.2 4.8 1.2
17 Jordan Miller LAC 5.7 2.3 0.9
18 Tre Mann CHA 5.3 1.8 1.3
19 Josh Green CHA 5.2 1.6 1.0
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.3 1.2 0.7
21 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.0 2.6 0.5
22 Pat Connaughton CHA 2.2 0.8 0.4
23 Cam Christie LAC 2.0 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.