NBA games

LAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
112–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28262929112
SAC32293429124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SAC
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 42 7 8
LeBron James S 33 22 4 3
Deandre Ayton S 27 13 13 1
Jaxson Hayes 19 12 5 1
Gabe Vincent 18 9 0 1
Bronny James 2 6 0 0
Dalton Knecht 13 5 2 1
Jake LaRavia S 31 2 2 3
Marcus Smart S 31 1 2 2
Nick Smith Jr. 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 32 2 6
Malik Monk 32 26 1 8
Russell Westbrook S 34 22 5 7
Zach LaVine S 32 19 4 1
Maxime Raynaud S 31 11 4 1
Precious Achiuwa S 30 9 7 0
Keon Ellis 12 3 0 0
Dylan Cardwell 17 2 7 0
Nique Clifford 15 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"LeBron James makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
4 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
5 Russell Westbrook SAC
9%
6 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
7 LeBron James LAL
9%
8 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
9 Precious Achiuwa SAC
7%
10 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
20%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 32.3 6.7 9.4
2 LeBron James LAL 26.6 5.8 7.0
3 Zach LaVine SAC 20.4 3.3 3.3
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.1 4.1 5.1
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.0 5.4 6.3
6 Dennis Schroder SAC 14.0 3.2 5.7
7 Jake LaRavia LAL 13.5 5.3 2.5
8 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.4 7.8 1.3
9 Maxime Raynaud SAC 12.1 8.1 1.6
10 Marcus Smart LAL 9.4 3.9 3.5
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.2 3.2 0.9
12 Malik Monk SAC 8.7 2.4 2.0
13 Nique Clifford SAC 8.4 2.9 1.6
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.1 4.1 1.1
15 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.6 4.7 1.7
16 Precious Achiuwa SAC 7.1 5.4 1.7
17 Keon Ellis SAC 6.6 2.3 1.0
18 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.4 1.7 1.6
19 Dylan Cardwell SAC 6.1 6.8 1.2
20 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 6.0 1.2 0.8
21 Drew Eubanks SAC 4.0 2.1 0.6
22 Dalton Knecht LAL 4.0 1.8 0.7
23 Devin Carter SAC 3.5 1.5 1.1
24 Dario Saric SAC 3.2 1.2 0.4
25 Maxi Kleber LAL 2.9 2.1 0.9
26 Doug McDermott SAC 2.9 0.8 0.4
27 Bronny James LAL 2.0 0.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.