Monday, January 12, 2026

BKN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final

105–113

Final

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
BKN	23	22	32	28	105
DAL	32	24	28	29	113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm

Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (BKN) games this season

BKN away

home DAL

38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Michael Porter Jr. S	33	28	9	3	9/17	6/10	-3
Day'Ron Sharpe	23	14	12	0	4/7	0/0	2
Noah Clowney S	29	13	2	2	4/9	1/6	-7
Nic Claxton S	25	13	6	5	6/9	0/0	-10
Drake Powell S	25	10	1	0	5/10	0/4	-7
Tyrese Martin	20	7	2	0	3/8	1/4	-2
Nolan Traore	22	6	1	6	3/9	0/4	-10
Jalen Wilson	15	6	3	0	2/5	0/3	-5
Terance Mann S	29	5	3	6	2/6	1/3	3
Danny Wolf	19	3	4	1	1/6	0/3	-1

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3PT	+/-
Cooper Flagg S	35	27	5	5	10/17	2/3	5
Naji Marshall S	32	22	4	9	9/14	0/1	12
Klay Thompson	27	18	2	1	6/13	6/9	7
Jaden Hardy S	22	14	2	0	5/14	4/10	2
Max Christie S	34	10	5	2	4/12	1/8	-1
Ryan Nembhard	22	9	1	8	4/8	1/2	2
Dwight Powell S	35	5	10	3	2/2	0/0	5
Miles Kelly	11	5	0	0	2/2	1/1	5
Moussa Cisse	12	2	6	0	1/2	0/0	4
Caleb Martin	10	1	2	0	0/1	0/0	-1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80

Trained on 67736 player-games

Actual

Nic Claxton · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1

"Nic Claxton makes 3-foot two point shot"

Most likely first scorer (top 10)

1 Cooper Flagg DAL

13%

2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN

12%

3 Nic Claxton BKN

11%

4 Max Christie DAL

11%

5 Naji Marshall DAL

11%

6 Noah Clowney BKN

7 Daniel Gafford DAL

8 Terance Mann BKN

9 Ryan Nembhard DAL

10 Danny Wolf BKN

Method (given top scorer)

3PT

20%

Dunk

Free Throw

16%

Jumper

28%

Layup

31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)

#	Player	Team	Pred PTS	Pred REB	Pred AST	Actual PTS	Actual REB	Actual AST
1	Michael Porter Jr.	BKN	25.9	7.1	4.5	28	9	3
2	Cooper Flagg	DAL	22.6	6.4	6.4	27	5	5
3	Naji Marshall	DAL	14.5	4.0	2.8	22	4	9
4	Noah Clowney	BKN	14.1	4.4	2.4	13	2	2
5	Max Christie	DAL	14.0	3.6	2.7	10	5	2
6	Nic Claxton	BKN	13.5	7.6	3.4	13	6	5
7	Klay Thompson	DAL	10.7	2.9	1.6	18	2	1
8	Day'Ron Sharpe	BKN	9.8	7.4	3.7	14	12	0
9	Terance Mann	BKN	8.8	4.0	3.6	5	3	6
10	Daniel Gafford	DAL	7.5	6.8	0.9	—	—	—
11	Nolan Traore	BKN	7.5	2.3	3.1	6	1	6
12	Ryan Nembhard	DAL	7.4	2.3	4.4	9	1	8
13	Danny Wolf	BKN	7.0	4.2	1.9	3	4	1
14	Tyrese Martin	BKN	6.4	2.4	1.5	7	2	0
15	D'Angelo Russell	DAL	6.2	1.6	2.1	—	—	—
16	Drake Powell	BKN	5.6	1.8	1.1	10	1	0
17	Jaden Hardy	DAL	5.3	1.6	1.1	14	2	0
18	Jalen Wilson	BKN	5.1	1.6	0.7	6	3	0
19	Dwight Powell	DAL	4.7	3.8	1.1	5	10	3
20	Miles Kelly	DAL	4.5	1.7	1.3	5	0	0
21	Tyson Etienne	BKN	4.0	1.0	0.7	—	—	—
22	Caleb Martin	DAL	3.9	1.9	1.3	1	2	0
23	Moussa Cisse	DAL	2.5	3.3	0.5	2	6	0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.