NBA games

PHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
115–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI45351916115
TOR28232625102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home TOR
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 35 33 4 2
Joel Embiid S 36 27 8 4
Paul George S 29 15 4 6
VJ Edgecombe S 33 15 2 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. 30 7 4 0
Jabari Walker 14 6 1 0
Quentin Grimes 16 6 4 2
Dominick Barlow S 25 4 6 0
Jared McCain 6 2 0 0
Adem Bona 12 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 32 18 6 0
Brandon Ingram S 34 17 10 7
Scottie Barnes S 35 15 4 3
A.J. Lawson 17 14 1 1
Collin Murray-Boyles S 32 12 7 6
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 8 2 2
Alijah Martin 13 6 2 2
Gradey Dick 12 4 1 2
Jamison Battle 8 3 2 0
Jamal Shead S 30 3 1 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 14-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram TOR
15%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
4 Joel Embiid PHI
9%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
6 Paul George PHI
8%
7 Dominick Barlow PHI
7%
8 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
9 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
7%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
23%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 27.9 8.8 3.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.6 4.7 6.3
3 Brandon Ingram TOR 22.2 6.0 3.3
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.2 9.6 5.9
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.0 4.0 6.0
6 VJ Edgecombe PHI 18.4 5.3 5.1
7 Paul George PHI 16.3 5.8 3.6
8 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 12.9 4.5 1.5
9 Quentin Grimes PHI 11.8 3.7 2.6
10 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 10.8 5.8 2.4
11 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 10.6 8.4 2.4
12 Jamal Shead TOR 10.5 2.1 5.2
13 Dominick Barlow PHI 9.3 4.5 1.1
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.2 7.1 0.9
15 Trendon Watford PHI 6.1 2.7 2.1
16 Gradey Dick TOR 5.6 2.3 0.8
17 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.6 2.9 0.9
18 Adem Bona PHI 5.6 4.6 0.7
19 Jared McCain PHI 5.3 2.6 1.2
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.1 1.8 0.5
21 Alijah Martin TOR 3.9 2.3 0.7
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.5 1.7 0.7
23 Jabari Walker PHI 3.4 3.1 0.5
24 Eric Gordon PHI 3.2 0.4 0.3
25 Justin Edwards PHI 2.3 1.2 0.6
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.2 1.3 0.7
27 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.4 0.5 0.9
28 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.