NBA games

BOS @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
9698
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2432211996
IND1934261998

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home IND
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard S 37 23 4 8
Derrick White S 36 18 4 5
Anfernee Simons 24 16 3 4
Neemias Queta S 32 15 8 2
Sam Hauser S 33 8 8 1
Jordan Walsh 26 6 9 1
Luka Garza 16 6 6 1
Baylor Scheierman S 20 2 3 0
Hugo Gonzalez 15 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 21 8 6
Jay Huff S 28 20 3 2
Andrew Nembhard S 33 13 6 9
Jarace Walker 25 11 7 1
Quenton Jackson 15 8 0 1
Aaron Nesmith S 32 6 5 2
T.J. McConnell 15 5 0 5
Micah Potter 13 5 4 1
Ben Sheppard 23 5 2 1
Johnny Furphy S 16 4 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Neemias Queta · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Neemias Queta makes dunk (Payton Pritchard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Derrick White BOS
13%
3 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Hugo Gonzalez BOS
7%
8 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
9 Johnny Furphy IND
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
18%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 31.5 6.9 6.2
2 Pascal Siakam IND 23.8 6.9 4.1
3 Derrick White BOS 21.1 5.1 5.3
4 Andrew Nembhard IND 20.1 3.4 8.6
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 17.3 4.8 5.5
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 14.1 3.1 2.9
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.3 5.2 3.3
8 T.J. McConnell IND 12.3 2.8 5.7
9 Neemias Queta BOS 10.1 9.4 1.2
10 Luka Garza BOS 9.5 5.4 1.3
11 Jay Huff IND 9.1 3.6 1.6
12 Sam Hauser BOS 9.0 3.6 1.1
13 Micah Potter IND 8.2 3.1 1.4
14 Jarace Walker IND 7.9 2.7 1.7
15 Ben Sheppard IND 7.1 2.7 1.8
16 Johnny Furphy IND 6.9 4.5 1.2
17 Quenton Jackson IND 5.8 1.4 1.5
18 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.5 4.5 1.2
19 Ethan Thompson IND 5.2 2.1 1.5
20 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.6 3.3 0.8
21 Chris Boucher BOS 4.1 3.2 0.6
22 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.8 1.6 0.9
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.7 1.7 0.7
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.6 1.8 0.7
25 Kam Jones IND 3.3 1.1 0.7
26 Tony Bradley IND 3.2 2.4 0.7
27 Max Shulga BOS 2.6 1.4 0.7
28 Amari Williams BOS 2.5 2.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.