NBA games

HOU @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
98–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU2325282298
SAC22292733111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SAC
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Amen Thompson S 41 31 13 6
Kevin Durant S 38 23 4 6
Alperen Sengun S 35 19 9 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 9 7 0
Reed Sheppard 15 6 0 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 16 4 3 0
Aaron Holiday S 28 3 1 4
Steven Adams 24 3 6 1
Josh Okogie 9 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 37 22 2 6
Zach LaVine S 28 18 2 1
Malik Monk 26 15 4 3
Russell Westbrook S 34 15 6 10
Maxime Raynaud S 20 12 9 1
Precious Achiuwa S 39 10 7 3
Dylan Cardwell 19 9 11 1
Nique Clifford 22 8 2 0
Drew Eubanks 9 2 1 0
Keon Ellis 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach LaVine · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Zach LaVine makes 17-foot fade away jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant HOU
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
5 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC
9%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
9 Steven Adams HOU
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
30%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 28.6 6.5 6.5
2 Amen Thompson HOU 23.5 8.9 5.6
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.9 9.9 5.5
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.5 4.2 5.3
5 Zach LaVine SAC 18.7 3.3 3.3
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 17.9 5.8 5.4
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.6 6.2 2.0
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.9 2.8 3.5
9 Dennis Schroder SAC 13.7 3.0 5.4
10 Maxime Raynaud SAC 11.5 8.2 1.5
11 Nique Clifford SAC 8.2 3.1 1.7
12 Steven Adams HOU 7.2 7.7 1.7
13 Malik Monk SAC 7.1 2.1 1.8
14 Keon Ellis SAC 6.5 2.1 0.8
15 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.3 4.5 1.4
16 Isaiah Crawford HOU 5.1 2.3 0.9
17 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.9 5.8 1.0
18 Josh Okogie HOU 4.4 2.4 1.1
19 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.4 2.7 0.9
20 Clint Capela HOU 4.1 4.6 0.8
21 Devin Carter SAC 3.8 1.6 1.0
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 1.4 0.8
23 Dario Saric SAC 2.9 1.0 0.3
24 Doug McDermott SAC 2.7 0.7 0.4
25 Aaron Holiday HOU 2.6 1.1 0.8
26 Drew Eubanks SAC 2.5 1.6 0.3
27 Jeff Green HOU 2.0 0.6 0.4
28 JD Davison HOU 1.6 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.