NBA games

ATL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
124–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL27323530124
GS28252533111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home GS
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 34 24 2 2
Jalen Johnson S 33 23 11 6
Luke Kennard 20 22 1 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 33 18 12 8
CJ McCollum 24 12 0 4
Dyson Daniels S 31 11 7 9
Vit Krejci S 21 5 5 0
Mouhamed Gueye 24 5 5 0
Corey Kispert 14 2 2 3
Keaton Wallace 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 31 3 5
Jimmy Butler III S 34 30 7 6
De'Anthony Melton 23 10 5 3
Quinten Post S 18 8 3 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 3 6 2 0
Gary Payton II 16 6 5 0
Draymond Green S 29 5 9 4
Gui Santos 16 5 2 3
Al Horford 16 5 8 2
Brandin Podziemski 16 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 17-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
2 Stephen Curry GS
12%
3 CJ McCollum ATL
9%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
8 Quinten Post GS
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
16%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.6 4.3 6.5
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 26.9 10.2 8.7
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.0 5.5 5.6
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 21.5 4.2 3.8
5 CJ McCollum ATL 21.2 4.4 4.4
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 19.2 8.2 4.2
7 Dyson Daniels ATL 14.0 7.8 7.6
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.8 4.4 3.3
9 Draymond Green GS 11.1 4.8 5.7
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.9 4.2 1.3
11 De'Anthony Melton GS 10.1 3.3 2.0
12 Vit Krejci ATL 10.0 2.6 1.7
13 Moses Moody GS 9.9 3.3 1.6
14 Quinten Post GS 8.6 3.3 1.5
15 Luke Kennard ATL 8.4 2.2 2.3
16 Gary Payton II GS 8.3 4.4 2.2
17 Al Horford GS 8.1 5.7 1.7
18 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.8 4.6 1.9
19 Corey Kispert ATL 7.5 2.1 1.2
20 Buddy Hield GS 6.9 3.2 1.3
21 Will Richard GS 6.4 2.7 1.6
22 Gui Santos GS 5.5 3.5 1.3
23 Asa Newell ATL 5.5 2.9 0.8
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.2 4.7 0.9
25 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.4 1.4 1.1
26 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.4 3.5 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.