NBA games

WSH @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
93–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH2822172693
PHX32333116112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home PHX
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alex Sarr S 28 19 15 1
Tre Johnson S 30 19 5 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 28 12 4 1
Will Riley 19 9 4 1
Bub Carrington 32 9 4 7
Justin Champagnie 21 8 6 0
Marvin Bagley III 16 6 3 0
Kyshawn George S 26 5 2 4
Tristan Vukcevic 4 4 1 0
Khris Middleton S 18 2 2 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Royce O'Neale S 25 19 7 4
Devin Booker S 26 17 3 8
Dillon Brooks S 24 16 1 1
Grayson Allen 24 12 7 2
Mark Williams S 22 11 7 2
Oso Ighodaro 20 10 3 2
Ryan Dunn 19 9 6 3
Isaiah Livers 7 7 2 0
Rasheer Fleming 13 4 1 1
Jordan Goodwin 22 3 6 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Royce O'Neale · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Royce O'Neale makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
13%
3 Kyshawn George WSH
11%
4 Mark Williams PHX
10%
5 Tre Johnson WSH
10%
6 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
29%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.5 4.0 6.8
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 21.1 4.1 2.5
3 Kyshawn George WSH 16.0 4.9 5.1
4 Collin Gillespie PHX 15.4 4.4 5.5
5 Alex Sarr WSH 14.9 6.4 2.6
6 Tre Johnson WSH 14.0 2.7 2.9
7 Grayson Allen PHX 13.2 2.8 3.6
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.2 6.0 2.4
9 Bub Carrington WSH 12.1 3.8 4.2
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.6 5.6 2.8
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.3 7.0 1.3
12 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.9 4.4 2.6
13 Mark Williams PHX 10.0 8.5 1.3
14 Khris Middleton WSH 9.0 3.5 2.4
15 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.3 5.4 1.1
16 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.6 3.2 1.0
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 6.9 5.6 1.9
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.7 4.3 1.7
19 Malaki Branham WSH 4.9 1.9 1.1
20 Will Riley WSH 4.4 1.8 1.0
21 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.1 2.1 0.7
22 AJ Johnson WSH 3.3 1.5 0.9
23 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.3 0.4
24 Nick Richards PHX 2.3 3.3 0.5
25 Isaiah Livers PHX 2.1 2.0 0.9
26 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.8 1.1 0.4
27 Khaman Maluach PHX 1.8 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.