NBA games

MIL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
104–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL23292230104
DEN27352323108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home DEN
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 33 31 8 11
Myles Turner S 24 16 5 0
AJ Green S 37 14 5 4
Bobby Portis 17 14 2 0
Kyle Kuzma 26 11 6 0
Kevin Porter Jr. S 38 10 9 7
Gary Harris 15 6 3 1
Ryan Rollins S 35 2 6 4
Gary Trent Jr. 15 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. 35 25 2 0
Aaron Gordon S 32 23 6 4
Peyton Watson S 39 19 8 6
Zeke Nnaji 28 14 10 3
Jalen Pickett S 37 13 8 4
Bruce Brown 24 7 6 4
Spencer Jones S 25 5 2 0
Hunter Tyson S 13 2 3 2
Julian Strawther 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 15-foot fade away jump shot (Hunter Tyson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Peyton Watson DEN
12%
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
11%
4 Christian Braun DEN
9%
5 AJ Green MIL
9%
6 Myles Turner MIL
8%
7 Spencer Jones DEN
8%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
9 Hunter Tyson DEN
7%
10 Jalen Pickett DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
12%
Layup
58%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 26.7 8.6 4.7
2 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 20.6 5.9 8.2
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.9 5.4 5.2
4 Peyton Watson DEN 18.6 5.4 2.4
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.3 6.2 2.0
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 16.0 3.3 1.7
7 Bobby Portis MIL 15.1 8.0 2.0
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.1 5.1 2.8
9 Myles Turner MIL 11.6 5.0 1.7
10 Christian Braun DEN 9.7 4.2 2.3
11 AJ Green MIL 9.1 2.5 2.0
12 Bruce Brown DEN 8.7 3.9 2.6
13 Spencer Jones DEN 8.7 3.8 1.5
14 Jalen Pickett DEN 7.4 2.9 2.6
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 6.6 1.9 1.3
16 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.6 2.8 0.8
17 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.9 2.1 1.3
18 Gary Harris MIL 4.6 1.9 1.0
19 Jericho Sims MIL 4.5 3.2 0.9
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.1 1.7 0.9
21 Julian Strawther DEN 3.9 1.4 1.0
22 Cole Anthony MIL 2.6 1.0 1.1
23 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.3 0.7 0.8
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 1.0 0.3
25 Amir Coffey MIL 1.7 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.