NBA games

MIA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
112–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA34252627112
OKC32223931124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home OKC
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 37 23 5 3
Tyler Herro S 27 19 2 3
Pelle Larsson S 28 16 3 3
Nikola Jovic 25 13 4 2
Davion Mitchell S 31 13 3 10
Kel'el Ware 16 8 1 0
Bam Adebayo S 32 6 14 4
Dru Smith 17 6 3 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 20 5 0 3
Simone Fontecchio 2 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 32 29 5 8
Jalen Williams S 29 18 4 4
Ajay Mitchell 27 16 4 1
Chet Holmgren S 32 16 10 2
Isaiah Joe 19 11 3 1
Aaron Wiggins 19 11 2 2
Jaylin Williams 14 9 5 1
Alex Caruso 14 7 1 2
Luguentz Dort S 19 4 4 0
Cason Wallace S 26 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Jalen Williams makes layup (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC
9%
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA
9%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
8 Norman Powell MIA
8%
9 Tyler Herro MIA
7%
10 Branden Carlson OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
32%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.2 4.4 6.8
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.7 6.0 3.1
3 Norman Powell MIA 22.6 4.0 3.9
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.7 4.7 4.2
5 Jalen Williams OKC 19.6 5.4 6.6
6 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.9 9.3 1.9
7 Ajay Mitchell OKC 15.4 3.7 3.5
8 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.1 5.2 2.8
9 Bam Adebayo MIA 13.1 10.7 2.9
10 Nikola Jovic MIA 12.3 4.2 3.8
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.3 9.9 1.2
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.3 3.9 1.3
13 Davion Mitchell MIA 9.0 2.5 6.0
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 8.3 3.3 1.6
15 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.0 2.7 2.3
16 Dru Smith MIA 6.9 2.3 1.7
17 Cason Wallace OKC 6.5 3.2 1.5
18 Alex Caruso OKC 6.4 3.5 1.4
19 Ousmane Dieng OKC 6.1 1.7 1.1
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.6 1.3
21 Branden Carlson OKC 5.3 3.2 0.7
22 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.2 2.1 1.0
23 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.9 3.7 2.1
24 Simone Fontecchio MIA 4.7 2.0 1.0
25 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 4.6 2.0 1.0
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.7 1.8 0.5
27 Myron Gardner MIA 3.2 1.9 0.6
28 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 2.8 2.0 0.8
29 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.4 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.