NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
103–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA31243018103
MIN24182933104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 27 29 7 1
Keldon Johnson 26 15 2 0
Julian Champagnie S 36 14 10 1
Harrison Barnes S 32 13 1 4
De'Aaron Fox S 34 12 8 4
Stephon Castle S 35 11 6 5
Luke Kornet 23 6 12 0
Lindy Waters III 12 3 1 3
Kelly Olynyk 4 0 1 0
Dylan Harper 11 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 23 2 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 38 19 9 7
Naz Reid 31 17 11 2
Julius Randle S 35 15 8 4
Jaden McDaniels S 36 12 5 1
Bones Hyland 12 10 1 0
Mike Conley 12 4 0 2
Rudy Gobert S 29 2 14 3
Jaylen Clark 9 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:39 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 10-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
16%
2 Stephon Castle SA
12%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
6 Luke Kornet SA
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
20%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.4 5.1 4.2
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.4 10.6 3.3
3 Julius Randle MIN 23.0 6.9 6.2
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.6 4.8 6.0
5 Stephon Castle SA 18.6 4.2 6.7
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.9 6.1 2.5
7 Keldon Johnson SA 15.8 6.0 1.4
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.2 4.0 2.8
9 Julian Champagnie SA 12.4 7.2 1.8
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 11.6 4.2 4.9
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.3 11.2 1.4
12 Luke Kornet SA 9.5 6.8 2.0
13 Harrison Barnes SA 9.4 3.0 1.9
14 Dylan Harper SA 8.3 3.5 3.4
15 Bones Hyland MIN 7.0 2.1 3.0
16 Mike Conley MIN 5.0 2.0 2.3
17 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.9 2.0 0.8
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.0 1.7 1.5
19 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.7 2.0 1.3
20 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.7 1.5 0.7
21 Jeremy Sochan SA 3.4 2.4 0.7
22 Joan Beringer MIN 3.2 2.3 0.5
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.1 1.9 0.7
24 Lindy Waters III SA 3.0 1.3 0.6
25 Joe Ingles MIN 2.6 1.1 1.3
26 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.5 1.0 0.7
27 Carter Bryant SA 2.1 1.1 0.6
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.0 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.