NBA games

NY @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
123–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY34312533123
POR34262529114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home POR
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 26 6 8
OG Anunoby S 34 24 7 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 20 11 3
Mikal Bridges S 34 18 6 6
Josh Hart S 31 18 3 6
Miles McBride 35 8 0 3
Mitchell Robinson 25 6 11 2
Jordan Clarkson 13 3 0 1
Mohamed Diawara 3 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 25 5 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 35 23 6 3
Caleb Love 29 21 4 4
Robert Williams III 16 12 4 2
Toumani Camara S 39 11 6 2
Donovan Clingan S 30 8 8 1
Jrue Holiday 16 8 2 4
Sidy Cissoko S 28 5 2 3
Rayan Rupert 10 1 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
11%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
3 Jerami Grant POR
9%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
5 OG Anunoby NY
8%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
7 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
8 Josh Hart NY
6%
9 Toumani Camara POR
6%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
66%
Jumper
18%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.8 3.1 6.6
2 Deni Avdija POR 28.8 7.0 9.3
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.2 4.4 3.7
4 Jerami Grant POR 22.0 4.3 3.6
5 Jrue Holiday POR 20.4 4.8 8.5
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.7 10.1 3.2
7 OG Anunoby NY 16.4 5.9 2.7
8 Toumani Camara POR 16.4 4.8 3.1
9 Caleb Love POR 16.3 3.8 2.9
10 Miles McBride NY 15.1 2.9 2.1
11 Donovan Clingan POR 13.8 10.7 2.4
12 Mikal Bridges NY 13.4 4.5 4.5
13 Josh Hart NY 13.3 7.9 4.8
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 9.5 2.0 1.3
15 Kris Murray POR 8.0 3.6 1.5
16 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.4 2.4 1.9
17 Tyler Kolek NY 7.4 3.0 3.7
18 Mitchell Robinson NY 6.4 9.6 1.3
19 Robert Williams III POR 5.7 6.2 1.1
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 1.3 0.9
21 Rayan Rupert POR 4.7 2.1 1.2
22 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 4.2 2.2 1.8
23 Mohamed Diawara NY 4.2 1.7 0.7
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.8 2.3 1.1
25 Duop Reath POR 3.3 1.8 0.8
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 3.1 0.8
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.0 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.