NBA games

PHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
115–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHI252336238115
TOR223618319116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home TOR
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 45 38 4 5
VJ Edgecombe S 45 17 4 4
Quentin Grimes 35 13 7 1
Dominick Barlow S 26 13 6 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 13 5 0
Adem Bona 33 9 5 0
Jabari Walker 17 7 6 0
Jared McCain 9 5 1 1
Trendon Watford 2 0 1 0
Andre Drummond S 20 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 43 31 7 8
Jamal Shead S 37 22 1 6
Immanuel Quickley S 40 20 5 7
Collin Murray-Boyles S 42 17 15 3
Alijah Martin 30 9 8 1
Ochai Agbaji 15 6 6 1
Jamison Battle 15 5 2 0
Ja'Kobe Walter S 5 2 0 1
A.J. Lawson 10 2 2 0
Gradey Dick 11 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Shead · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jamal Shead makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
16%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
3 Paul George PHI
12%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
11%
5 VJ Edgecombe PHI
11%
6 Dominick Barlow PHI
10%
7 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR
9%
8 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
9%
9 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR
8%
10 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
34%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.9 4.4 6.1
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.2 10.2 5.4
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.0 4.0 6.1
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI 18.0 5.2 4.9
5 Paul George PHI 16.3 5.8 3.6
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.0 4.8 1.5
7 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.0 6.2 2.2
8 Quentin Grimes PHI 10.5 3.3 2.6
9 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 9.0 7.3 2.2
10 Dominick Barlow PHI 8.6 4.2 1.2
11 Jamal Shead TOR 8.6 2.0 4.8
12 Trendon Watford PHI 8.5 4.1 3.1
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.5 3.0 1.3
14 Andre Drummond PHI 6.1 7.4 1.0
15 Jared McCain PHI 6.0 3.0 1.6
16 Gradey Dick TOR 5.7 2.3 0.9
17 Ochai Agbaji TOR 5.1 2.4 0.9
18 Adem Bona PHI 4.6 4.1 0.7
19 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.2 1.8 0.5
20 Alijah Martin TOR 3.6 1.7 0.7
21 Jamison Battle TOR 3.4 1.7 0.7
22 Eric Gordon PHI 3.3 0.4 0.4
23 Jabari Walker PHI 3.1 2.9 0.5
24 Justin Edwards PHI 2.8 1.4 0.8
25 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 2.7 1.6 0.8
26 Kyle Lowry PHI 1.4 0.5 0.9
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.