NBA games

BKN @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
98–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2327242498
MEM34271626103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MEM
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Noah Clowney S 30 17 6 1
Tyrese Martin 21 17 3 1
Jalen Wilson 18 11 1 1
Danny Wolf S 25 11 10 0
Cam Thomas 24 9 2 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 21 8 13 3
Egor Demin S 28 7 1 4
Nic Claxton S 27 7 3 5
Terance Mann S 26 7 4 1
Nolan Traore 20 4 0 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward S 27 21 8 1
Jock Landale S 28 16 9 1
Santi Aldama 33 15 8 3
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 14 5 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 20 14 4 1
Cam Spencer S 30 12 4 13
Vince Williams Jr. 21 4 5 4
GG Jackson 10 3 1 0
Christian Koloko 15 2 7 1
Jaylen Wells S 22 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cedric Coward · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Cedric Coward makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cedric Coward MEM
14%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Terance Mann BKN
10%
6 Jock Landale MEM
8%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
9 Egor Demin BKN
8%
10 Cam Spencer MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
25%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 25.5 7.1 4.3
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.0 6.6 2.1
3 Cam Thomas BKN 18.0 2.7 2.6
4 Egor Demin BKN 17.2 4.1 3.8
5 Cedric Coward MEM 16.3 6.9 3.6
6 Santi Aldama MEM 16.0 6.7 3.7
7 Nic Claxton BKN 14.2 8.3 3.2
8 Noah Clowney BKN 13.6 4.4 2.2
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.4 3.6 2.5
10 Cam Spencer MEM 12.4 3.6 6.8
11 Jock Landale MEM 11.9 7.5 2.0
12 GG Jackson MEM 9.5 3.8 1.4
13 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 9.5 2.6 2.2
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.2 6.7 3.4
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.9 3.2 3.7
16 Terance Mann BKN 8.8 3.9 4.1
17 Danny Wolf BKN 6.9 3.7 2.0
18 Nolan Traore BKN 6.9 2.3 2.8
19 Drake Powell BKN 5.8 2.1 1.1
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.4 1.9 1.1
21 John Konchar MEM 4.4 2.9 1.4
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.3 1.6 0.6
23 Christian Koloko MEM 4.3 3.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.