NBA games

NO @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
118128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO26333920118
ORL26323337128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home ORL
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 32 22 3 3
Trey Murphy III S 37 21 7 6
Jordan Poole 23 21 0 2
Jeremiah Fears S 28 16 4 3
Karlo Matkovic 18 11 0 1
Derik Queen S 28 10 3 6
Yves Missi 18 7 5 0
Bryce McGowens S 26 6 1 2
Micah Peavy 19 2 1 3
Jordan Hawkins 11 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 35 27 5 4
Anthony Black S 36 26 5 7
Paolo Banchero S 39 23 8 8
Tristan da Silva 19 16 0 1
Goga Bitadze S 32 14 13 1
Noah Penda S 38 9 6 2
Moritz Wagner 10 8 2 2
Jase Richardson 7 3 0 0
Tyus Jones 12 2 0 1
Jamal Cain 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Noah Penda · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Noah Penda makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Zion Williamson NO
12%
4 Anthony Black ORL
11%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
6 Derik Queen NO
10%
7 Jeremiah Fears NO
9%
8 Noah Penda ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
10 Bryce McGowens NO
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
30%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.5 7.0 3.6
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.3 9.5 6.0
3 Anthony Black ORL 23.4 4.5 6.2
4 Trey Murphy III NO 22.6 5.5 3.9
5 Desmond Bane ORL 21.8 5.2 5.3
6 Derik Queen NO 14.5 10.5 5.1
7 Jeremiah Fears NO 14.4 4.5 3.7
8 Jordan Poole NO 13.4 2.6 3.6
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.6 3.1 1.6
10 Bryce McGowens NO 8.9 2.8 1.5
11 Jase Richardson ORL 8.9 2.7 1.8
12 Tyus Jones ORL 7.0 2.4 3.3
13 Noah Penda ORL 6.8 5.0 1.5
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.0 5.5 1.1
15 Yves Missi NO 5.9 5.4 1.3
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.6 4.1 0.8
17 Micah Peavy NO 5.6 2.1 1.1
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.9 3.0 0.8
19 Jamal Cain ORL 4.8 1.5 0.9
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.3 2.1 1.2
21 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.8 1.9 0.7
22 Trey Alexander NO 3.6 1.6 0.7
23 Kevon Looney NO 3.5 5.0 1.2
24 Orlando Robinson ORL 2.8 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.