NBA games

DAL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
107–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28272428107
CHI36302831125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home CHI
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Nembhard S 29 16 3 6
Naji Marshall S 24 14 4 3
Jaden Hardy 13 14 1 0
Cooper Flagg S 28 11 1 2
Klay Thompson 20 10 2 1
Max Christie S 27 10 3 2
D'Angelo Russell 19 8 2 4
Caleb Martin 20 8 4 4
Daniel Gafford S 25 6 7 0
Moussa Cisse 19 5 10 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 29 22 4 3
Ayo Dosunmu 26 20 4 8
Nikola Vucevic S 29 15 12 3
Matas Buzelis S 25 15 6 2
Isaac Okoro S 29 13 4 2
Tre Jones S 28 13 3 5
Kevin Huerter 24 13 3 6
Jalen Smith 16 7 9 0
Patrick Williams 20 4 5 1
Jevon Carter 3 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Coby White makes running layup (Isaac Okoro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
12%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
4 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
5 Max Christie DAL
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Tre Jones CHI
9%
8 Kevin Huerter CHI
9%
9 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
10 Jalen Smith CHI
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
36%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cooper Flagg DAL 23.2 6.1 6.5
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.5 8.7 4.7
3 Coby White CHI 18.2 4.0 4.5
4 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.7 5.0 2.4
5 Naji Marshall DAL 16.0 4.1 3.3
6 Max Christie DAL 13.5 3.4 2.8
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.5 3.5 4.0
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.0 4.7 2.6
9 Klay Thompson DAL 10.9 2.4 1.7
10 Tre Jones CHI 10.8 3.2 5.6
11 Isaac Okoro CHI 9.2 3.1 1.4
12 Jalen Smith CHI 7.2 6.8 1.2
13 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.1 1.9 4.5
14 Daniel Gafford DAL 6.6 6.9 0.9
15 D'Angelo Russell DAL 5.4 1.0 2.3
16 Julian Phillips CHI 4.8 1.8 0.8
17 Patrick Williams CHI 4.7 2.2 1.0
18 Miles Kelly DAL 4.5 1.4 1.5
19 Jevon Carter CHI 4.3 1.2 1.0
20 Jaden Hardy DAL 3.8 1.2 1.0
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.2 2.4 0.8
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 1.6 1.0
23 Caleb Martin DAL 3.2 1.8 1.2
24 Moussa Cisse DAL 1.3 2.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.