NBA games

SA @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
100–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA21292327100
BOS2629202095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home BOS
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 36 21 9 6
Victor Wembanyama 26 21 6 1
Keldon Johnson 28 18 10 1
Julian Champagnie S 35 12 13 3
Stephon Castle S 27 9 2 5
Harrison Barnes S 26 6 1 3
Luke Kornet S 24 5 7 1
Dylan Harper 22 5 4 1
Kelly Olynyk 7 3 1 1
Jeremy Sochan 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Derrick White S 42 29 9 3
Jaylen Brown S 43 27 8 7
Luka Garza 25 11 6 0
Baylor Scheierman 26 10 2 0
Neemias Queta S 24 9 13 2
Anfernee Simons 25 5 2 3
Payton Pritchard S 29 4 5 4
Jordan Walsh 13 0 3 0
Hugo Gonzalez S 13 0 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes driving layup (Harrison Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
4 Payton Pritchard BOS
12%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Luke Kornet SA
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Carter Bryant SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
11%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.6 7.1 6.1
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.1 10.2 3.3
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 20.7 4.8 6.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 19.1 4.4 6.1
5 Derrick White BOS 18.7 5.0 5.8
6 Stephon Castle SA 18.3 4.4 6.9
7 Keldon Johnson SA 15.1 5.9 1.3
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 14.5 3.2 2.7
9 Julian Champagnie SA 11.8 6.1 1.6
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.2 8.6 1.1
11 Luke Kornet SA 10.0 7.4 2.0
12 Harrison Barnes SA 9.8 2.8 1.8
13 Luka Garza BOS 9.5 5.7 1.4
14 Dylan Harper SA 7.9 3.1 3.5
15 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 6.3 5.3 1.0
16 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.1 3.7 0.9
17 Jeremy Sochan SA 4.2 2.8 0.8
18 Chris Boucher BOS 4.0 3.1 0.6
19 Ron Harper Jr. BOS 3.7 1.5 0.9
20 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.5 1.7 0.7
21 Kelly Olynyk SA 3.4 1.5 1.1
22 Lindy Waters III SA 3.3 1.3 0.6
23 Carter Bryant SA 2.8 1.3 0.7
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.7 1.0 0.7
25 Bismack Biyombo SA 2.6 1.2 0.6
26 Max Shulga BOS 2.6 1.4 0.7
27 Amari Williams BOS 2.5 2.0 0.6
28 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.4 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.