NBA games

LAC @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
98–92
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC1427273098
DET2827211692

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DET
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 31 26 8 1
John Collins S 37 25 7 1
James Harden S 37 19 7 7
Ivica Zubac S 32 17 6 1
Jordan Miller 28 9 1 1
Kris Dunn S 38 2 1 6
Kobe Sanders 10 0 3 0
Nicolas Batum 14 0 1 0
Brook Lopez 12 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Duncan Robinson S 28 20 2 1
Ronald Holland II 25 16 6 1
Daniss Jenkins 21 10 4 2
Tolu Smith 26 9 14 1
Paul Reed S 22 8 7 3
Jaden Ivey S 20 8 3 0
Caris LeVert 23 8 1 4
Javonte Green S 33 7 7 0
Ausar Thompson S 34 6 3 6
Marcus Sasser 7 0 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
16%
2 James Harden LAC
12%
3 Ausar Thompson DET
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
5 John Collins LAC
10%
6 Paul Reed DET
10%
7 Duncan Robinson DET
9%
8 Jaden Ivey DET
9%
9 Kris Dunn LAC
9%
10 Brook Lopez LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
22%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 30.0 6.5 4.9
2 James Harden LAC 25.0 3.6 7.2
3 John Collins LAC 15.4 6.1 1.5
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.0 8.9 2.0
5 Ausar Thompson DET 11.7 6.5 2.0
6 Kris Dunn LAC 9.9 3.3 3.1
7 Duncan Robinson DET 9.6 2.7 1.7
8 Javonte Green DET 8.9 2.9 1.3
9 Brook Lopez LAC 8.2 4.2 1.7
10 Jaden Ivey DET 8.1 2.2 1.9
11 Ronald Holland II DET 7.8 5.8 1.1
12 Caris LeVert DET 6.7 2.5 2.4
13 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.7 2.8 1.9
14 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.6 2.4 1.2
15 Daniss Jenkins DET 5.5 1.5 2.8
16 Jordan Miller LAC 5.1 2.3 0.8
17 Marcus Sasser DET 4.2 1.2 1.5
18 Paul Reed DET 4.2 3.3 1.0
19 Bobi Klintman DET 3.9 2.4 1.0
20 Chaz Lanier DET 3.9 1.3 0.9
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.8 1.5 0.7
22 Tolu Smith DET 3.8 3.8 0.7
23 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.5 2.9 0.6
24 Isaac Jones DET 3.4 1.4 0.5
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.5 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.