NBA games

MIA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
99–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA1827272799
IND36253824123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home IND
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 32 21 7 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 25 16 7 2
Bam Adebayo S 25 13 9 2
Andrew Wiggins S 20 11 6 1
Dru Smith 12 8 1 4
Norman Powell S 22 6 3 1
Keshad Johnson 6 6 0 0
Simone Fontecchio 8 5 1 0
Pelle Larsson 16 4 3 0
Nikola Jovic 17 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 29 29 6 9
Micah Potter 16 14 4 0
Jarace Walker 30 13 9 4
Aaron Nesmith S 27 12 9 2
T.J. McConnell 17 12 1 7
Pascal Siakam S 26 11 7 5
Johnny Furphy S 20 10 7 2
Jay Huff 19 8 2 2
Quenton Jackson S 23 6 1 1
Tony Bradley 4 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes running layup (Quenton Jackson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
11%
3 Kel'el Ware MIA
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
10%
5 Norman Powell MIA
10%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
9%
7 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
8 Quenton Jackson IND
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
10 Johnny Furphy IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
37%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.0 6.8 3.9
2 Norman Powell MIA 24.0 4.2 3.9
3 Tyler Herro MIA 22.9 5.9 2.9
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.8 4.3 4.1
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.1 3.3 7.3
6 Andrew Wiggins MIA 15.4 5.0 3.0
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.1 4.5 3.0
8 Bam Adebayo MIA 14.4 10.5 3.0
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.1 10.2 1.2
10 T.J. McConnell IND 11.6 3.2 5.5
11 Nikola Jovic MIA 11.3 3.9 3.8
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.1 2.4 6.4
13 Jay Huff IND 8.3 3.8 1.5
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 8.2 2.3 2.4
15 Ben Sheppard IND 7.4 2.8 1.5
16 Micah Potter IND 7.2 3.0 1.3
17 Jarace Walker IND 6.7 2.3 1.3
18 Dru Smith MIA 6.4 2.1 1.8
19 Johnny Furphy IND 6.3 4.1 1.2
20 Quenton Jackson IND 5.0 1.5 1.3
21 Ethan Thompson IND 4.9 2.0 1.4
22 Kasparas Jakucionis MIA 4.8 2.1 1.1
23 Simone Fontecchio MIA 4.4 1.9 1.0
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.8 2.5 0.5
25 Myron Gardner MIA 2.9 1.2 0.7
26 Kam Jones IND 2.9 1.1 0.7
27 Tony Bradley IND 2.8 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.