NBA games

MIN @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
134–146
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33322643134
CLE29343647146

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home CLE
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 28 25 5 3
Anthony Edwards S 35 25 5 3
Julius Randle S 31 20 4 4
Donte DiVincenzo S 35 15 3 6
Bones Hyland 20 12 2 7
Jaden McDaniels S 27 12 1 1
Rudy Gobert S 31 8 12 2
Joan Beringer 3 6 2 0
Joe Ingles 6 5 0 3
Johnny Juzang 3 4 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 31 28 3 8
Evan Mobley S 32 24 4 3
Jaylon Tyson 26 23 2 2
Darius Garland S 29 22 0 6
Sam Merrill S 26 20 2 1
Jarrett Allen S 28 16 11 4
De'Andre Hunter 21 4 2 2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 16 4 1 2
Thomas Bryant 3 3 0 1
Tyrese Proctor 3 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Darius Garland CLE
11%
5 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
6 Julius Randle MIN
10%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
8 Craig Porter Jr. CLE
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
24%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.8 4.8 4.8
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.7 5.1 6.3
3 Julius Randle MIN 22.9 7.1 6.2
4 Darius Garland CLE 19.9 2.7 7.7
5 Evan Mobley CLE 17.4 8.0 3.6
6 Naz Reid MIN 15.8 6.2 2.7
7 Sam Merrill CLE 14.0 3.2 2.6
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.0 9.4 2.8
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.9 4.2 2.9
10 De'Andre Hunter CLE 13.0 4.9 2.3
11 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.3 4.2 4.9
12 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.1 5.0 2.0
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.8 11.6 1.6
14 Bones Hyland MIN 6.8 2.0 3.1
15 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.4 4.5 3.4
16 Thomas Bryant CLE 5.7 3.2 0.7
17 Lonzo Ball CLE 5.6 2.9 3.1
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.3 2.6 0.8
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.8 2.0 0.8
20 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 4.5 2.4 1.3
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.6 1.6 1.7
22 Tyrese Proctor CLE 3.4 1.1 1.0
23 Leonard Miller MIN 3.2 1.6 0.6
24 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.1 1.2 0.7
25 Joan Beringer MIN 2.6 1.9 0.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.2 0.8 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.