NBA games

MIL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
105101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL24372519105
LAL25272524101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home LAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Porter Jr. S 39 22 5 6
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 31 21 6 5
Kyle Kuzma 23 13 3 2
AJ Green S 35 11 2 2
Bobby Portis 30 11 12 3
Ryan Rollins S 31 10 6 2
Myles Turner S 23 8 6 0
Gary Trent Jr. 19 6 2 2
Gary Harris 8 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 33 26 9 10
Luka Doncic S 36 24 9 9
Jake LaRavia S 34 13 2 2
Marcus Smart S 30 9 4 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 27 9 9 2
Jaxson Hayes 24 6 2 1
Gabe Vincent 15 6 2 2
Deandre Ayton S 24 4 5 0
Dalton Knecht 13 4 1 0
Maxi Kleber 3 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
13%
3 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL
10%
4 Deandre Ayton LAL
10%
5 LeBron James LAL
9%
6 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
7 AJ Green MIL
8%
8 Myles Turner MIL
8%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
8%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
7%
Layup
64%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 30.1 5.9 9.3
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.4 9.5 4.5
3 LeBron James LAL 25.8 5.1 6.5
4 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 20.8 5.8 8.8
5 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.9 5.3 5.4
6 Bobby Portis MIL 16.0 7.9 1.7
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.1 5.6 2.9
8 Jake LaRavia LAL 12.9 5.7 2.5
9 Myles Turner MIL 12.5 4.8 1.8
10 Deandre Ayton LAL 12.1 8.0 1.3
11 Marcus Smart LAL 9.8 3.8 3.4
12 AJ Green MIL 8.7 2.5 1.9
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.4 5.0 1.7
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 7.3 3.9 0.9
15 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 7.2 1.9 1.3
16 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 6.8 1.4 1.0
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.2 1.4 1.5
18 Jericho Sims MIL 4.6 3.2 0.8
19 Gary Harris MIL 4.5 1.8 0.8
20 Dalton Knecht LAL 3.8 1.7 0.7
21 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.2 1.8 0.8
22 Bronny James LAL 2.7 0.9 0.9
23 Cole Anthony MIL 2.6 1.0 1.1
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 0.8 0.8
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 1.8 0.9 0.3
26 Amir Coffey MIL 1.4 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.