NBA games

HOU @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
105–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU29273415105
POR28272234111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home POR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 30 12 4
Amen Thompson S 37 24 9 3
Reed Sheppard 34 20 3 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 41 13 8 1
Tari Eason S 16 6 3 2
Steven Adams S 33 5 9 3
Josh Okogie 12 4 5 2
Dorian Finney-Smith 18 3 3 1
Clint Capela 11 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Toumani Camara S 40 25 2 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 35 20 8 5
Deni Avdija S 36 20 3 6
Caleb Love 25 18 4 1
Sidy Cissoko S 22 13 1 1
Donovan Clingan S 33 8 15 6
Duop Reath 11 3 5 1
Rayan Rupert 19 2 1 2
Yang Hansen 13 2 1 1
Robert Williams III 7 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 1-foot running dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
9%
5 Jerami Grant POR
9%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
8 Toumani Camara POR
6%
9 Steven Adams HOU
6%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
33%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 28.6 7.4 8.5
2 Kevin Durant HOU 28.1 5.8 6.5
3 Amen Thompson HOU 22.2 8.3 5.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.3 4.2 3.5
5 Jerami Grant POR 20.5 4.3 3.4
6 Jrue Holiday POR 19.7 4.7 7.8
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.9 6.1 2.0
8 Caleb Love POR 14.6 3.5 2.9
9 Reed Sheppard HOU 13.9 2.7 3.6
10 Toumani Camara POR 12.9 4.6 2.6
11 Donovan Clingan POR 12.9 10.1 1.9
12 Tari Eason HOU 12.2 6.5 1.8
13 Kris Murray POR 7.6 3.5 1.4
14 Sidy Cissoko POR 7.2 2.3 1.9
15 Steven Adams HOU 6.7 6.9 1.5
16 Robert Williams III POR 5.7 6.2 1.2
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.2 0.8
18 Josh Okogie HOU 4.6 2.1 0.9
19 Rayan Rupert POR 4.2 1.9 1.0
20 Dorian Finney-Smith HOU 4.1 2.5 0.8
21 Clint Capela HOU 3.7 3.9 0.8
22 Yang Hansen POR 3.4 2.1 1.0
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.0 1.4 0.7
24 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.0 1.2 0.8
25 Duop Reath POR 2.3 1.0 0.5
26 Jeff Green HOU 1.8 0.6 0.3
27 Javonte Cooke POR 1.7 0.5 0.5
28 JD Davison HOU 1.4 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.