NBA games

SAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
103–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC29302519103
GS34293440137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home GS
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 35 24 2 3
Zach LaVine S 30 15 3 3
Dennis Schroder 20 15 3 3
Russell Westbrook S 28 13 4 7
Maxime Raynaud S 26 8 7 2
Malik Monk 19 8 2 1
Nique Clifford 25 6 0 1
Dylan Cardwell 22 6 8 1
Keon Ellis S 25 5 2 1
Devin Carter 4 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 27 0 10
De'Anthony Melton 19 19 0 1
Jimmy Butler III S 23 15 6 6
Brandin Podziemski 22 14 4 2
Gary Payton II 18 12 9 1
Quinten Post S 13 11 2 2
Draymond Green S 27 11 6 8
Al Horford 16 9 5 2
Moses Moody S 22 7 0 2
Buddy Hield 4 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quinten Post · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Quinten Post makes 13-foot floating jump shot (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
14%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
11%
4 Stephen Curry GS
11%
5 Maxime Raynaud SAC
10%
6 Russell Westbrook SAC
10%
7 Draymond Green GS
8%
8 Quinten Post GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
8%
10 Precious Achiuwa SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
26%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.5 4.7 5.7
2 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.6 5.0 5.1
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.9 4.5 5.3
4 Zach LaVine SAC 18.7 3.4 3.1
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.3 6.2 5.8
6 Dennis Schroder SAC 15.5 3.2 6.0
7 Maxime Raynaud SAC 12.7 8.9 1.5
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.4 4.1 3.5
9 Draymond Green GS 10.7 4.9 5.1
10 Nique Clifford SAC 9.2 3.6 1.7
11 Moses Moody GS 9.1 3.3 1.6
12 De'Anthony Melton GS 8.7 3.2 2.0
13 Quinten Post GS 8.3 3.4 1.5
14 Jonathan Kuminga GS 7.9 4.6 1.8
15 Al Horford GS 7.7 5.2 2.0
16 Will Richard GS 7.1 2.7 1.5
17 Pat Spencer GS 6.8 2.3 3.4
18 Buddy Hield GS 6.5 3.2 0.9
19 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.4 4.6 1.5
20 Malik Monk SAC 6.0 1.6 1.7
21 Keon Ellis SAC 6.0 2.2 0.9
22 Gary Payton II GS 5.6 3.4 1.7
23 Gui Santos GS 5.1 3.3 1.2
24 Dylan Cardwell SAC 4.8 5.5 1.0
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.6 4.5 0.8
26 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 1.2 0.7
27 Dario Saric SAC 3.3 1.1 0.4
28 Drew Eubanks SAC 3.0 1.9 0.3
29 Devin Carter SAC 3.0 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.