NBA games

NY @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
107–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY23372621107
PHX28343218112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home PHX
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 27 3 5
Miles McBride S 39 17 2 2
OG Anunoby S 38 15 8 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 15 12 5
Jordan Clarkson 21 12 1 0
Mikal Bridges S 33 11 8 4
Mitchell Robinson 24 8 14 1
Tyler Kolek 10 2 2 1
Kevin McCullar Jr. 1 0 0 1
Mohamed Diawara 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 31 3 8
Dillon Brooks S 33 27 7 5
Royce O'Neale S 33 12 6 1
Grayson Allen 26 10 3 1
Mark Williams S 25 10 5 0
Ryan Dunn 12 7 5 3
Jordan Goodwin 18 7 6 0
Collin Gillespie S 28 6 2 2
Rasheer Fleming 4 2 0 0
Oso Ighodaro 23 0 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles McBride · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
15%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
3 OG Anunoby NY
11%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
11%
5 Mark Williams PHX
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
7 Devin Booker PHX
10%
8 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
9 Collin Gillespie PHX
7%
10 Miles McBride NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
44%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
5%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.6 3.5 6.1
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.0 4.0 6.5
3 Dillon Brooks PHX 20.6 3.9 2.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.4 9.9 2.8
5 Grayson Allen PHX 16.6 2.8 4.0
6 Collin Gillespie PHX 16.5 4.7 5.6
7 Mikal Bridges NY 14.4 4.1 4.4
8 OG Anunoby NY 14.2 5.4 2.5
9 Miles McBride NY 13.8 2.9 2.3
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX 11.6 5.1 2.9
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.7 4.2 2.9
12 Mark Williams PHX 9.6 8.4 1.3
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.7 1.9 1.3
14 Oso Ighodaro PHX 8.0 6.2 2.0
15 Tyler Kolek NY 7.8 3.0 3.6
16 Ryan Dunn PHX 6.6 4.2 1.7
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.8 8.7 1.2
18 Rasheer Fleming PHX 4.0 2.0 0.7
19 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.9 1.5 0.6
20 Kevin McCullar Jr. NY 3.8 1.8 1.5
21 Nick Richards PHX 3.1 3.7 0.7
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 3.1 0.8
23 Khaman Maluach PHX 2.4 1.7 0.6
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 1.2 0.5
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.