NBA games

ATL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
110–87
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL30281636110
DEN2822251287

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DEN
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 35 29 9 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 33 22 8 3
Dyson Daniels S 36 17 11 10
Onyeka Okongwu S 35 15 5 5
Keaton Wallace 17 10 0 2
Asa Newell 11 9 4 0
Luke Kennard 27 8 1 4
Mouhamed Gueye 19 0 2 0
Vit Krejci S 27 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Peyton Watson S 34 25 11 4
Aaron Gordon 24 14 9 5
Zeke Nnaji 21 12 3 0
Hunter Tyson S 27 10 4 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. 26 10 2 1
Jalen Pickett S 33 7 6 6
DaRon Holmes II S 15 6 1 0
Bruce Brown 24 3 3 2
Christian Braun S 25 0 4 0
Julian Strawther 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
DaRon Holmes II · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"DaRon Holmes II makes 27-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Peyton Watson DEN
12%
2 Jalen Johnson ATL
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
6 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
10%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
8 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
9%
9 Christian Braun DEN
8%
10 DaRon Holmes II DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
24%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 26.6 5.6 9.5
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 26.3 10.5 9.5
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 20.3 3.7 3.9
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 18.8 8.5 4.2
5 Peyton Watson DEN 18.8 5.0 2.3
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.5 6.1 1.9
7 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 16.9 4.7 2.4
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 16.6 3.4 1.9
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.6 7.5 6.7
10 Christian Braun DEN 11.7 4.6 2.8
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.2 4.4 1.6
12 Bruce Brown DEN 10.4 4.5 2.6
13 Vit Krejci ATL 10.3 2.6 1.7
14 Luke Kennard ATL 7.9 2.2 2.1
15 Jalen Pickett DEN 7.5 2.8 2.3
16 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.8 2.8 0.8
17 Asa Newell ATL 5.7 2.5 1.0
18 DaRon Holmes II DEN 4.4 2.2 1.4
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.4 3.5 1.0
20 Julian Strawther DEN 3.3 1.0 0.9
21 N'Faly Dante ATL 3.1 4.0 0.6
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.0 1.2 0.6
23 Keaton Wallace ATL 2.9 0.9 1.1

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.