NBA games

OKC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
117–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC25213536117
MEM35302922116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MEM
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 36 26 5 10
Ajay Mitchell S 38 23 3 6
Kenrich Williams 29 21 8 0
Aaron Wiggins S 32 16 7 1
Luguentz Dort S 35 13 6 4
Alex Caruso 24 7 3 2
Branden Carlson S 16 5 1 0
Isaiah Joe 16 3 1 0
Ousmane Dieng 7 3 0 1
Brooks Barnhizer 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 23 7 1
GG Jackson 21 18 2 0
Santi Aldama 29 15 7 7
Cedric Coward S 26 13 9 4
Jock Landale S 28 13 10 2
Vince Williams Jr. 23 13 3 5
Jaylen Wells S 28 10 4 3
Cam Spencer S 30 7 4 11
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 10 2 1 1
Christian Koloko 14 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ajay Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Ajay Mitchell makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
16%
2 Cedric Coward MEM
14%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
4 Cam Spencer MEM
10%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC
9%
7 Jock Landale MEM
9%
8 GG Jackson MEM
9%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
10 Branden Carlson OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
32%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.0 6.7 2.4
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.7 5.4 6.2
3 Santi Aldama MEM 18.8 7.3 3.5
4 Cedric Coward MEM 16.3 7.3 3.7
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 14.0 4.0 3.6
6 Cam Spencer MEM 13.6 3.7 7.0
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.3 3.7 2.2
8 Jock Landale MEM 12.0 7.3 2.2
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 11.3 2.8 2.6
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.8 1.1
11 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.4 3.5 4.9
12 GG Jackson MEM 8.3 3.8 1.4
13 Aaron Wiggins OKC 7.2 3.2 1.5
14 Alex Caruso OKC 5.9 3.4 1.3
15 Branden Carlson OKC 5.6 3.3 0.9
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 2.5 1.7
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.2 3.8 2.1
18 Isaiah Joe OKC 5.2 2.0 1.2
19 John Konchar MEM 4.6 2.9 1.4
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 4.4 1.2 0.9
21 Christian Koloko MEM 4.1 3.8 0.8
22 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.6 1.1 0.5
23 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 1.8 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.