NBA games

LAC @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
121–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC35282830121
BKN25222929105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home BKN
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 35 31 4 6
Kawhi Leonard S 28 26 5 5
Jordan Miller 27 21 5 0
John Collins S 26 16 4 0
Kris Dunn S 22 9 1 5
Kobe Sanders 26 5 4 4
Ivica Zubac S 25 5 6 4
Nicolas Batum 23 5 2 1
Brook Lopez 21 3 5 3
Kobe Brown 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Egor Demin S 26 19 3 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 18 5 6
Nic Claxton S 31 13 6 4
Cam Thomas 22 13 1 1
Noah Clowney S 30 12 3 2
Danny Wolf 18 11 6 1
Terance Mann S 24 8 3 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 6 9 1
Nolan Traore 22 5 2 3
Jalen Wilson 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
John Collins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"John Collins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC
16%
2 James Harden LAC
10%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
4 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN
10%
5 John Collins LAC
9%
6 Terance Mann BKN
8%
7 Ziaire Williams BKN
8%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
7%
10 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
39%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kawhi Leonard LAC 30.0 7.3 4.3
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 25.9 7.4 4.0
3 James Harden LAC 23.9 3.4 7.1
4 Cam Thomas BKN 17.4 2.6 2.7
5 John Collins LAC 14.8 5.9 1.5
6 Egor Demin BKN 14.0 3.6 3.5
7 Nic Claxton BKN 13.5 8.3 3.4
8 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.4 10.2 2.1
9 Noah Clowney BKN 13.0 4.4 2.1
10 Kris Dunn LAC 10.2 3.6 3.0
11 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.2 6.3 3.6
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 7.9 2.3 1.0
13 Terance Mann BKN 7.7 3.4 3.7
14 Brook Lopez LAC 7.6 3.9 1.4
15 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.6 2.9 1.9
16 Danny Wolf BKN 6.4 3.3 2.1
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.1 2.4 1.0
18 Nolan Traore BKN 6.1 1.9 2.2
19 Drake Powell BKN 5.6 1.7 1.2
20 Tyrese Martin BKN 4.0 1.7 1.1
21 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.7 3.0 0.5
22 Jordan Miller LAC 3.6 2.3 0.9
23 Kobe Brown LAC 3.5 1.6 0.8
24 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.4 1.0 0.4
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.3 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.