NO @ WSH
NBA
Capital One Arena
·Final
128–107
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 28 | 32 | 40 | 28 | 128 |
| WSH | 26 | 24 | 34 | 23 | 107 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
WSH
23%
77%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III S | 36 | 35 | 8 | 4 |
| Zion Williamson S | 29 | 31 | 4 | 3 |
| Jeremiah Fears S | 32 | 21 | 5 | 6 |
| Derik Queen S | 35 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| Micah Peavy | 28 | 9 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 20 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Bryce McGowens S | 29 | 6 | 1 | 1 |
| Yves Missi | 13 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Trey Alexander | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Jeremiah Fears ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jeremiah Fears makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Kyshawn George
WSH
10%
2
Zion Williamson
NO
10%
3
Alex Sarr
WSH
9%
4
Tre Johnson
WSH
8%
5
Jordan Poole
NO
8%
6
Bilal Coulibaly
WSH
8%
7
Jeremiah Fears
NO
8%
8
Derik Queen
NO
7%
9
Trey Murphy III
NO
7%
10
Khris Middleton
WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
24%
Layup
24%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zion Williamson | NO | 24.5 | 7.2 | 3.6 |
| 2 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 22.3 | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| 3 | Kyshawn George | WSH | 16.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 |
| 4 | Jordan Poole | NO | 16.2 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| 5 | Alex Sarr | WSH | 16.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 |
| 6 | Tre Johnson | WSH | 15.4 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| 7 | Derik Queen | NO | 15.2 | 9.3 | 4.6 |
| 8 | Bub Carrington | WSH | 14.1 | 4.1 | 5.1 |
| 9 | Bilal Coulibaly | WSH | 13.9 | 6.1 | 2.6 |
| 10 | Jeremiah Fears | NO | 13.4 | 4.4 | 3.6 |
| 11 | Justin Champagnie | WSH | 11.2 | 6.8 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Khris Middleton | WSH | 10.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| 13 | Marvin Bagley III | WSH | 9.7 | 6.1 | 1.6 |
| 14 | Bryce McGowens | NO | 9.2 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 15 | Tristan Vukcevic | WSH | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| 16 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 5.9 | 4.2 | 0.9 |
| 17 | Yves Missi | NO | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.1 |
| 18 | Will Riley | WSH | 5.6 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 19 | Malaki Branham | WSH | 5.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| 20 | Micah Peavy | NO | 4.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 21 | Kevon Looney | NO | 4.1 | 5.3 | 1.3 |
| 22 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 23 | AJ Johnson | WSH | 3.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 24 | Anthony Gill | WSH | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Trey Alexander | NO | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.