NBA games

NO @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
128107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28324028128
WSH26243423107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home WSH
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 36 35 8 4
Zion Williamson S 29 31 4 3
Jeremiah Fears S 32 21 5 6
Derik Queen S 35 14 16 12
Micah Peavy 28 9 1 1
Jordan Hawkins 20 7 4 0
Bryce McGowens S 29 6 1 1
Yves Missi 13 3 9 2
Karlo Matkovic 5 2 3 0
Trey Alexander 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan Vukcevic 23 15 4 2
Kyshawn George S 24 15 5 2
Alex Sarr S 25 14 1 3
Justin Champagnie 22 12 9 4
Tre Johnson S 25 12 1 2
Bub Carrington 29 11 5 4
Malaki Branham 24 10 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 30 8 5 4
AJ Johnson 16 6 6 1
Khris Middleton S 21 4 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jeremiah Fears · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jeremiah Fears makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
2 Zion Williamson NO
10%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
4 Tre Johnson WSH
8%
5 Jordan Poole NO
8%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
7 Jeremiah Fears NO
8%
8 Derik Queen NO
7%
9 Trey Murphy III NO
7%
10 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
24%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.5 7.2 3.6
2 Trey Murphy III NO 22.3 4.9 3.9
3 Kyshawn George WSH 16.4 4.6 5.9
4 Jordan Poole NO 16.2 2.8 4.1
5 Alex Sarr WSH 16.2 7.6 2.9
6 Tre Johnson WSH 15.4 3.6 3.3
7 Derik Queen NO 15.2 9.3 4.6
8 Bub Carrington WSH 14.1 4.1 5.1
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.9 6.1 2.6
10 Jeremiah Fears NO 13.4 4.4 3.6
11 Justin Champagnie WSH 11.2 6.8 1.4
12 Khris Middleton WSH 10.9 3.9 3.3
13 Marvin Bagley III WSH 9.7 6.1 1.6
14 Bryce McGowens NO 9.2 2.8 1.5
15 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 8.0 3.6 1.2
16 Karlo Matkovic NO 5.9 4.2 0.9
17 Yves Missi NO 5.9 4.8 1.1
18 Will Riley WSH 5.6 2.4 1.6
19 Malaki Branham WSH 5.0 2.1 1.4
20 Micah Peavy NO 4.8 2.3 1.1
21 Kevon Looney NO 4.1 5.3 1.3
22 Jordan Hawkins NO 3.8 1.8 0.8
23 AJ Johnson WSH 3.7 1.5 1.1
24 Anthony Gill WSH 3.6 1.7 0.8
25 Trey Alexander NO 2.8 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.